Weather Forecasting

The Old Farmer's Almanac's weather forecasts continue to be regarded with a mixture of humor and respect. Skeptics can laugh, but there have been several miraculous predictions, including the July snow of 1816, which was forecast in a few errant copies; the 1953 Worcester Tornado, foreseen with the phrase, "Heavy squall and that's not all";and the near-perfect prediction of Hurricane Andrew which hit southern Florida in 1992. Since the beginning of this century, the National Weather Service has maintained accurate records of the nation's weather, and the Almanac's accuracy can be checked -- tradition has held it consistently at 80 percent.

The regional forecasts -- 18 regions in the United States and seven in Canada -- are the result of a serious effort to predict the weather; in fact, the Almanac is the only institution in America making day-to-day, nationwide forecasts 18 months ahead of time. These predictions are based largely on cycles of the Sun and the Moon, with other variables mixed in.

Any historical study of The Old Farmer's Almanac will find that it is tradition that maintains the Almanac's preeminence today. As much as it has changed over the years, with its modern editorial content, advertising, and international sales, it still looks much the same now as it did in 1792.

Robert B. Thomas told his readers in 1829: "Our main endeavour is to be useful, but with a pleasant degree of humour." Surely that describes the latest edition as well as it did the first.

How We Predict the Weather