Credit: NOAA 
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EmailI promised several readers last week that I would write about winter.
There is nothing like a heat wave to make you dream of crisp cool winter days and quiet drifts of snow. (Ok, Californians, I know you dream of 72˚ weather and enough rain that you don’t have to water the still blossoming garden.)
If, as most climate experts expect, we have an El Niño, winter might be a bit weird.
Click to expand. Satellite pictures show how El Niños develop. SOURCE: NOAA.
Basically, an El Niño (Spanish for “Little Boy) occurs when the Tropical Pacific is unusually warm, more than 0.5˚C or 0.9˚F hotter than average. It heats the air above it, which allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. Air pressure changes and that changes wind patterns. The unusual warmth lasts for months. Since the warm area is hundreds of thousands of square miles in size, it usually changes weather around the Pacific Rim and throughout the tropics.
El Niños move. The warmer water drifts east, while new warm water wells up in the center of the Pacific. Eventually the warm water crashes into the west coast of South America, around Ecuador. From there, it drifts north along the West Coast until it is off the coast of California. Warmth shifts north in the West and winds carry it inland. Meanwhile, the Pacific jetstream is shifted north and the southern tier of states wallow in water. (Good news for Texas!)
Click to expand. El Niños bring warmer weather north and cooler weather south. SOURCE: NOAA.
El Niños normally make the northern states and Canada warmer and the southern states and Mexico wetter. Confusing, isn’t it!
Unfortunately, for my Ohio readers, parts of the Midwest have less snow, which means things stay dry.
Of course, El Niño isn’t the only pattern that shapes winter. If an Arctic Oscillation is in a negative mood, it will be cold. The Arctic Oscillation is the king of winter, and a “little boy” cannot fight a king.
So, if you love shoveling snow off your sidewalks, this winter may disappoint you. If you like cool but not frigid weather, El Niño may be your best friend.
Evelyn Browning Garriss, historical climatologist, blogger, writer for The Old Farmer's Almanac, and editor of The Browning Newsletter, has advised farmers, businesses, and investors worldwide on upcoming climate events and their economic and social impact for the past 21 years.
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Comments
By OK36
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I live in SW OK I can't remember the last BIG snow we had. Will this winter be different?
By penny13
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From everything I have read, regarding the earth's past, and now it's present, the earth takes care of itself. We should embrace all the changes that are happening with our weather, as these changes are probably happening to preserve our planet earth. Man has survived all types of weather in the earth's history. Mother Earth seems to know what she is doing. Isn't it just like a Mother to clean up after the kid's messes, and make everything nice and organized again? Patience. This is a very big planet to clean up, and a lot of messes that have affected our weather.
By Evelyn Browning...
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I love your perspective. Our ancestors survived weather much tougher than this, and they didn't even have air conditioners.
By Jamie Irene
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Very good analogy, Penny! Enjoyed reading your perspective.
By jeltez42
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A few years back in the Almanac newsletter I had read a weather saying that the first fog in August was an indicator of when the first frost would come in September. Well, if this holds, Michigan should see a very early frost this year. Not that I am complaining, mind you, but we have struggled to get out of the 60's for the past week.
As for this winter, I will take anything as long as it is not like the last one. With 75-90% of our fruit crops lost, who wants to see a repeat of that. March temps of 70F are not cause for celebration. The rest of winter had above normal temps and below normal precipitation; that was a stressor for crops too.
By Evelyn Browning...
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Oh no -- I lost our cherry crop here and can sympathize.
Most El Ninos bring a double dip winter to your part of the country -- cool early and late winter, but warmer during mid-winter. Insects get killed but sometimes spring storms hurt fruit blossoms.
By nannie J
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Will fall get here soon? our meteorologists told us that the jet stream and NAO wont act the same this fall like it did last year which means us having another record warm winter are very very little becuase should still be neutral or even negative at times this fall and winter. That is music to my ears! El Nino usually supplies more moisture in the mid atlantic area and when the moisture clashes with a shot of cold air... BAM! winter is here. Bye Bye summer! go away so i can turn off my AC! My air bill was high enough this summer
By Evelyn Browning...
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I feel the air bill pain!
He sounds right about the NAO. An El Nino may give you a warm winter if you are in the northern states or Canada, but not as warm as last winter's record positive NAO.
By Evelyn Browning...
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I feel the air bill pain!
He sounds right about the NAO. An El Nino may give you a warm winter if you are in the northern states or Canada, but not as warm as last winter's record positive NAO.
By Evelyn Browning...
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I feel the air bill pain!
He sounds right about the NAO. An El Nino may give you a warm winter if you are in the northern states or Canada, but not as warm as last winter's record positive NAO.
By Becca Schmidle
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I HATE SNOW. I live in Northeastern West Virginia, so we get a lot of snow. Many years, Preston County tops Buffalo, NY. Snow wouldn't be too bad, except driving on Mountain Roads that aren't maintained or cleared. Sliding and getting stuck in ditches is NO fun.
By Denise Seamster
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Are you sure these above average temperatures can go away? 7 month streak of record warmth in 2012, is there any reason to believe we will stop there? I wouldnt be surprised if this winter would be warmer than last winter due to the fact to this year being so warm, i just cant count on us going back to normal anymore. Is it possible we could have heard the last of the record heat? August has been cooler and rainier in the midwest and east. Im noticing much less heat but i dont know.. August will some how find a way to be the 8th month of record breaking heat, can things still change between now and winter? Will el nino flip things around a bit? Please say yes! I want this year to return to more normal weather
By Evelyn Browning...
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Like you, I would like more normal weather. It might take a while with the Atlantic waters being so warm and the Gulf Stream flowing so fast. Sorry!
By Jamie Irene
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This reminds me of a wisdom that I saw on Sun-gazing.com. The picture is of a 1940's era where a mother and daughter are sitting together and knitting. The little girls asks, "Mom.....what is Normal?" To which the mother replies, " It's just a setting on the Dryer, honey."
I think when we finally give up trying to control and quantify everything in our material environment we will come to embrace change.....and Polar Shifts...as catalysts for emotional, mental and spiritual growth.
We can only hope.......
By Jamie Irene
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Why does everyone ignore the current magnetic shift of the Poles??? Or the Intense solar radiation bombarding Earth right now due to the diminishing Magnetosphere??? Surely these are related to the current weather patterns?
By jeltez42
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I don't think people are really intentionally ignoring this topic. You may want to search on Space Weather.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Do these phenomena impact our weather/climate, yes they do. The question lies in how much and will Ground (instead of Space) Weather people be able to measure it and then be able to connect the dots.
Keep in mind that Modern Weather/Climate science as we know it today is a new field (Vanguard 2 launched in 1959, not a success, TIROS 1 launched in 1960 and worked for 78 days). Sun (Sol) research is even newer with the advent of the SOHO project, which launced in 1995.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/home.html
Then throw in the new research that suggests cold temperatures aids in the destruction of stratospheric ozone and that warm temperatures actually help increase ozone concentration. The key is temperature based cloud formation and subsequent activation of chlorine.
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/000714FO.html
Just when we thought we had things all figured out and knew everything, Mother Nature threw us a curve ball. A great thing for curious people but a bad thing for people in the Midwest with brand new cross-country skis that will most likely go unused for ANOTHER season.
By Evelyn Browning...
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That would be interesting to write about. There is some science that relates the shifting magnetic poles to changes in the weather, but it is a very l-o-n-g weather cycle.
I will write about it in a few weeks when I have a chance to reread the science again.
By Adam M
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That's all I think about. I predicted that we will actually miss winter with kind of a Monty Python thing going from Summer to Spring, then from Spring to Summer again, and from Summer directly to winter, which will last for a while, then give way to spring again.
By Johnette Reynolds
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Yeah, well live in Arkansas a while. You never know what the weather will be. We have a saying, "If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes; it will change." I have literally seen it sunny and 90 degrees at 9 the morning in December, and snowing by 3 in the afternoon. We never get snow and have to completely shut down everything if we get two inches of ice because no one knows how to drive in it. People live without power for weeks! I hope it stays warm all winter, but we sure need rain all year long.
By Antje
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I live in a persistent squall area, right off of Lake Ontario. Last winter was great- didn't have to have the driveway plowed once! I pay attention to the fruit cover of the Mountain Ash tree- heavy with orange berries means lots of snow in winter. This year, the fruit on the tree does not even bend the branches, so I am not expecting much snow.
Of course, lake effect can always change that.
By hquest_98
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I have noticed the trees where I live, too! In east TN the trees will give larger fruit if the winter is colder and/or more snowfall. Also, I noticed that many of the trees will bear their fruit and drop it early if the winter weather will come earlier!
By Evelyn Browning...
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As a person who was a child in Buffalo NY, I know about lake effect snow and how it can change the weather.
I never heard of the Mountain Ash weather lore. It will be interesting to see if it works.
By Turtle65
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Really!?! I live in MI and last years wasn't terrible, but I LOVE to ski! I bought new skies and want to use them! Last year, on my birthday (March 20) we were skiing in upper 70 degree weather! It was cool in a way, but I WANT SOME SNOW! ;-)
By Danni
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The holiday season doesn't start for me unless we get a few snowflakes on Thanksgiving and yes, I'd like a white Christmas just as log as it snows a bit Christmas Eve and melts on the 26th. While I don't mind snow ice, wind and freezing temps I can do without.
By Gracy
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I love reading your blog!! You just explain everything in such a simple way. Hopefully we will get a break in south texas and northern Mexico from the scorching heat of this summer.
By Evelyn Browning...
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Thank you.
Usually the New Mexico/Texas/Northern Mexico areas get hit with lovely cool temperatures. Sometimes El Ninos even cause it to snow in El Paso.
By vevecurl
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Thank you for explaining things so easily, my daughter is excited to show your explanation of El Nino to her class. And we are really hoping for snow here in El Paso!!
By elaine toth
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HOPE we get some moisture in the ground this winter. I realize everyone hates snow but we NEED it.
By Baby Duck
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Have all of the snow that you want, just keep it out of the South. We hate snow like the Devil hates Holy Water.
By andysc
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I'm with u on that. I live in SC. Last winter was not that bad. I dread to see fall and winter come. I don't even like to go outside when its cold. But when u got cows a bellerin for hay, u got to pull out the coveralls, insulated boots, etc. By the time I get dressed I'm to tired to even get the cows fed. I hope El Nino throws us some warmer temps this winter although it sounds as if it makes us colder. With all the weird weather lately, maybe it will get confused too, and warm us up.
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