♫ “The cold never bothered me anyway.” ♫
If you live near the Great Lakes, “Frozen” is not just something you see in the local theater. On March 6, 92.2% of the Great Lakes were covered with ice. Hopefully, the cold doesn’t bother you—because scientists are warning that the frozen lakes will chill the spring.
Normally the Great Lakes freeze, but this year has been ridiculous. The 40-year average ice coverage each winter is about 51% and recently it has been only 40% or less. However, after the recent record-shattering blasts in late February and early March Arctic blast during one of the persistently coldest winters in decades, the Great Lakes are approaching a record. Since record keeping began in 1973, only February 1979 (94.7 percent peak) had greater ice coverage.
Blasts of Arctic air have kept the Great Lakes frozen. Source: NASA
The good news is that all this ice will eventually melt and add to the lakes’ water levels. Scientists report that Lake Erie will gain 1.8 inches of water, thanks in part to a brief February warm-up that melted some its snowpack. Lakes Michigan and Huron should gain between four and eight inches and Lake Superior is expected to rise an astounding 9.5 inches.
Government officials are also warning that the massive amount of ice will also probably affect the weather for months to come.
Unfortunately, with all the ice reflecting sunlight before it can warm the ground, the surrounding communities can expect cooler temperatures. At the same time, with the ice preventing lake moisture escaping into the air, conditions are expected to be drier with less “lake-effect” heavy snowfall.
Good news: The ice means less Lake Effect snowfall. Source: NASA
Officials are concerned that if there is a fast melt this spring, all this ice could jam in rivers and streams, causing flooding. However, the frozen lakes could make cool temperatures enough to slow down the melt.
Certainly, experts expect the Great Lakes to cool temperatures this spring, and the cooling may even last into summer. So if the cold doesn’t bother you anyway, this is your lucky year. The ices of winter should lead to a mild, comfortable summer.
Evelyn Browning Garriss, historical climatologist, is a longtime writer for The Old Farmer's Almanac. She is also editor of The Browning World Climate Bulletin and has advised farmers, businesses, and investors worldwide on upcoming climate events and their economic and social impact for the past 21 years.