How does The Old Farmer’s Almanac make its long-range predictions? We have a unique, age-old formula. Read on …
How We Predict the Weather
We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.
Notes about that formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. (Yes, that’s a photo of the unassuming black box.)
Disciplines in Long-Range Predictions
Over the years, we have refined and enhanced that formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions:
- solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity;
- climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and
- meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.
We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
Deviations from Averages
There is some confusion about what our forecasts means, and it’s important to understand that our forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies and updated every 10 years. The most recent tabulations span the period 1981 through 2010.
Photo Credit: Thinkstock
We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly, that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena. However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.
Order The Old Farmer’s Almanac
For a full year of weather predictions, pick up a print or digital copy of this year’s The Old Farmer’s Almanac here.