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Model Update through the Winter
The latest European long range model monthly forecast for North America just arrived into our in-house computer system and here is a breakdown of what it shows for the overall pattern for selected regions during a given month. Keep in mind, this is just my interpretation of the forecast model and not my own particular forecast. I will say that this model has done a pretty good job by long range forecasts over the past two years and is been consistent with its winter outlook for 2009/2010 now for 3 months straight.
***If I do not mention a particular region, that usually means that the model is not leaning one way or another (above vs. below normal) in terms of temperature or precipitation from what I can tell.
--Unusually mild over northern Alaska, dry as well.
--Colder than normal from the Northwest Territories down through northern BC and the northern Prairies.
--Wet pattern from the northern U.S. Plains through the Great Lakes and up into Quebec.
--Temperatures slightly above-normal over Atlantic Canada.
Fairly zonal (west to east) flow across southern Canada with a lack of extremes in terms of temperatures and precipitation. The model basicially does not commit to anything.
--Cold pattern over Labrador.
--Warmer than normal over Alaska.
--Fairly dry and mild pattern over most of western Canada. This also includes the Pacific Northwest.
--Wet pattern over California and over the southern U.S. Plains.
--Colder compared to normal from Manitoba through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, Ontario and western Quebec.
--Potentially stormy pattern from the Middle Atlantic States through Atlantic Canada.
--Unusually mild from Alaska through the Yukon Territory and down through BC and the Northwestern U.S.
--Rainfall and/or snowfall below-normal from BC through the Pacific Northwest and into Alberta.
--Wetter pattern compared to normal over the southwestern U.S. and through the Southeast.
--If the model is right, this type of pattern will deliver plenty of Arctic air down through Manitoba and eastern Canada, then down through the Midwestern U.S.
--Stormy pattern from the southern U.S. through the Northeast U.S. and up into Atlantic Canada. Temperatures close to normal.
February (model showing a continued extreme pattern)
--Much above-normal temperatures from interior Alaska through most of western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest.
--Precipitation above-normal over southern Alaska, but precipitation (including snowfall) will be below-normal throughout most of interior western Canada.
--Stormy pattern for California, plenty of snow in the Sierra and southern Rockies.
--Much colder compared to normal from Labrador, to eastern Ontario and Quebec.
--Colder than normal over the eastern half of the U.S.
--Stormy and snowier compared to normal up and down the U.S. eastern seaboard and then up into the Maritimes.
--Plenty of lake-effect snow over the Great Lakes.
Model showing major blocking pattern from the North Pole down through northern Canada.
--Temperatures well above-normal over northwestern and northern Canada.
--Stormy over the Aleutians.
--Still above-normal temperatures over BC, but not as much so compared to Jan and Feb.
--Dry pattern over interior BC and the Canadian Rockies.
--Temperatures back to normal over the southern Prairies.
--Southern U.S. still looks unsettled.
--Very cold compared to normal across eastern and Atlantic Canada then down into the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.
--Snowfall above-normal over the Great Lakes, southern Ontario and into the Northeast U.S. , including most of Atlantic Canada.
Obviously, the eventual strength of El Nino, if there still is one by this winter, will be one of the key factors in whether or not this model's forecast works out.