We're entering into the fall season. The Earths Tilt on its axis Compared with the Orbit is Changing, and the arctic regions of the Globe are Recieving Less & Less sunlight. However, as is usually common, parts of the atmosphere further south have not quite begun the cooling trend as quickly. As the Cooling air up North builds, the Northern Jet Stream starts to dip farther and farther south in weather disruptions known as troughs. However, the Warm air to the south doesn't want to give up the fight just yet. Thus what happens is as a trough digs into a part of the country, the Low associated with it can break off a piece, and it ususally gets stuck in an area of light flow, while the northern jet retreats northward. These lows can wander around or even stall for over periods of several days, if not more than a week if the climatological setup is right. And until the jet dips again, the storm will continue to wander freely, or on some occasion get caught up in the S stream or drift off. But more importantly, heavy precip can be a problem with these lows, and if interaction is made with a source of moisture, Widespread flooding ca result. Let The Heavy Rain in the SE & S Central Be an example of what closed lows can do. AS WE HEAD INTO THE 2 WEEKS, It looks as if this pattern may continue, as more closed lows split off the jet and wander around until picked up. Stay Tuned:)
When do you see cooler weather finally entering the PNW?
I see the First Cold shot in the PNW Coming Either at the end of the month, OR... Sometime in Early to Mid October. But Before then, Cold air will not stick around anywhere in the country for long, I do not see any Major trough in the East Or the West for awhile. UNTIL MID/LATE NOVEMBER, The Fall Looks Very Tranquil for the country, with the occasional Cold shot. But as we head into November, A series of storm systems will Start in the West/PNW, treck across the country, and end as a noreaster in the east, and winter will start to take hold. HOWEVER, December will be winters development month, and While the PNW has the Potential to be Cool & stormy, the country as a whole will not be all that cold. HOWEVER..... JANUARY, the Winter will tighten its grip on the nation. The PNW should Warm Steadily from there on, the MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES look Dangerously Cold, While the SE, Mid Atlantic, & NE looks COLD & stormy. HEAVY SNOWS/BLIZZARDS look to occur in the East in FEBUARY, while Febuary looks to support a Wet Pattern in the SW, while the PNW is dry & warm & Dry. Florida is cool & wet.
So you're saying Indian Summer like conditions until the end of the month or early next month? Sounds good to me. Looks like the models are agreeing with you too. Keep up the great work! :)