My Fall Outlook

7 replies [Last post]
Offline
Joined: 2009-08-27

I have broken down each month of Fall into the first and second half for the forecast. I hope some of you like it.

September 9th through 15th:

El Nino continues to maintain itself in the tropical Pacific. This will likely have some good sized impacts on the forecast. How this month and October turns out will greatly affect how winter turns up. Looking at analogs, 1951, 1968, 1978, 2002, and 2008 are the top 5. Looking at the PDO, it continues to remain negative and will likely stay this way since I don't see any change in pattern going on anytime soon. For this period, the PNA is forecasted to stay positive which will place a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Expect these next 6 days to mainly dry and warm. There's even a chance of breaking some record highs in Lewiston and West of the Cascades. For Eastern Washington and North Idaho, temperatures will generally be in the 70s to near 80. A weak storm may impact the area towards the 15th, but its effects will be very weak.

September 16th through 30th:

Looking at long range models, the PNA is expected to remain strongly positive and the PDO will continue negative. This will likely result in a cold East and warm West as the blocking pattern continues. The computer models want to bring in some strong Pacific Storms, but don't be fooled. The strong ridge will remain parked over the West and most if not all of these storms will be forced into Canada. September will likely be above average which will reduce the top 5 analogs to 1951, 2002, and 2008. Dry weather will rule during this period while East continues to be cold and wet.

October 1st through 15th:

Looking at 3 remaining analogs shows that there's some major changes coming if you're tried of warm, sunny weather and ready for rain. The atmospheric pattern will favor a ridge building into East while cold, troughy weather finally settles into the west. Until then, Summer will continue to make surprise visits until this major pattern change occurs. Temperatures for this portion of the month will likely be below normal with well above average rainfall thanks to the -PDO. Could mean some more early snows for the mountains as well.

October 16th through Halloween:

By this period, Fall will truly be here with well below normal temperatures expected. The flow will feature a deep trough directly over the PNW with strong ridging in East. This could break some rainfall records, but we'll have to wait and see what happens with the El Nino to decide that. A taste of Winter will be possible towards Halloween as an arctic blast drops just East of the Cascades before moving through the Plains and the East Coast.

November 1st through 15th:

Following the cold October, November will dry out quite bit and will actually be above average in temperatures. A ridge of high pressure will build into the PNW with this period almost being completely dry while California receives some much needed rain as some El Nino conditions will be present. Most of the west will likely be above normal in temperatures with below normal precip, except for Central and Southern California where precipitation will be above normal.

November 16th through 30th:

While the PNW continues to blowtorch, California will receive a lot of rain. There is a possibility that the PDO may even go positive briefly, but this will likely be short lived. November as a whole is forecasted to be well above normal and very dry for all of the West, expect for Central and Southern California. Following the totally blow torched November, December will be completely different from what I'm seeing.

In general,

Sept 9-15th: Warm and dry Pacific Northwest and a cold and wet East.

Sept 16th-30th: Warm and dry Pacific Northwest and a cold and wet East.

Oct 1st-15th: Wet and cold Pacific Northwest and a dry and warm East.

Oct 16th-Oct 31st: Wet and quite cold Pacific Northwest and a dry and warm East.

Nov 1st-15th: Warm and dry West, Wet and cold California, wet and cold East.

Nov 16th-30th: Warm and very dry West, Wet and cold California, wet and cold East.

Brief look at winter (December through February)

From what I'm seeing, the cold and wet weather will return to the West with some snows likely for the Pacific Northwest. The East will be wetter and colder than average. In general, most of the lower 48 could go into a deep freeze this winter with a cold West and East likely.

feel free to comment about it. I maybe completely off since I'm still new to forecasting for an entire season so please don't bash me too much.

Snowman5678's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-08-08
AWSOME OUTLOOK

that is a great outlook tell us when you will be making a winter outlook i cant wait to see that even though i know its to early to know but awsome outlook :D:D:D

Offline
Joined: 2009-08-27
This year is very tough to forecast

My full winter outlook will be sometime between October and November since the atmosphere is acting pretty unusual for the current ENSO. What happens this month and the next will greatly impact my winter oulook.

Offline
Joined: 2009-08-07
Hey, thanks so much for your

Hey, thanks so much for your forecast, I hope it holds true! I just have one question though... Wasn't last year more of a la nina year? You made mention to 2008 as being an analog to watch. Just curious...

Offline
Joined: 2009-08-27
Actually, it was neutral

It came very close to being a La Nina year, but it wasn't. This analog barely even ranks on the top 3 due to the ENSO being different. The current pattern we're in is what shows this year being a possible analog. That September was warmer than normal in the West while cold and wet in the East. So even though the ENSO isn't right, the atmosphere is acting like how it did in 2008. This year will be knocked out if it turns significantly wetter in the West which pretty unlikely.

Offline
Joined: 2009-09-06
Good Outlook, But I Have a Different theory.

Good Outlook. I agree for the most part. HOWEVER, my opinion is different Below:
-California looks to get Average to Below Averge Precip this winter.
-October looks quite uneventful for the US.
-November looks stormy(with a warm start), a Sudden series of storms(Starting in the PNW and Ending as a series of Noreasters) will allow winter to gain full grasp on the Country.
-IN december, The Cold Push following the stormy Conditions will Freeze the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Bone, while Stormy Conditions Invade the PNW With rain & possible snow down to 1000FT or maybe lower. The EAST looks to Average out Overall, with Frigid Periods & tranquil Periods, but DON'T BE FOOLED
-January looks to Warm up in the PNW, Get even Colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest, and Slightly Colder/wetter than normal in the East.
-Febuary looks to Feature a VERY COLD & SNOWY EASTERN US, with possible blizzard(s). The Lakes/Midwest look FRIGID. The Deep South Looks Very Wet, INCLUDING S TEXAS, and the PNW looks Mild with Slightly below average Precip.

Hope I wasn't too pushy

wjp1102 (my new name, I had to change my account)

Offline
Joined: 2009-08-27
We'll see what happens

We'll see who's the closest by the winter.

Snowman5678's picture
Offline
Joined: 2009-08-08
And start

AND THE COMPETITION STARTS NOW

on the forum it isnt about competiton its about the weather :D

Post new comment

Before posting, please review all comments. Due to the volume of questions, Almanac editors can respond only occasionally, as time allows. We also welcome tips from our wonderful Almanac community!

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.