El Nino 2010-2012: Astromet Forecast & Teleconnections
The Sun Completes Global Warming Phase With Powerful ENSO
By Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Published: July 2009
My forecast for the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 will soon be verified by the appearance of rising sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Astronomic indications confirm that the new celestial cycles, mainly those of the Sun, and the planets in April/May 2009, clearly reveal that a new ENSO is on the horizon.
NOAA and other global climatologists continue to see rising temperatures in the eastern Pacific, now about 1-degree Celsius above normal, with receding trade winds. This is a standard sign of a coming ENSO.
Some forecasters are wary since competing computer models that forecast climate conditions differ; as some indicate an El Nino is on the way, and others continue to show neutral ENSO conditions. Many forecasts still are not certain of the strength and length of the coming ENSO. However, many forecasters will have to revise their outlooks sooner rather than latter.
I am forecasting a very strong El Nino, which is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo an historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980 while opening a new global cooling phase that will get underway by the year 2017.
Graphic on How El Nino & La Nina Cause Global Climate Troubles, see -
In the meantime, I am also forecasting that the years of late 2009 to 2016 will feature some of the world's wildest climate and weather events of the early 21st century.
THE SUN STARTS SOLAR CYCLE #24
It is important not to take this El Nino lightly. The Sun is beginning to pick up activity, a sure sign of coming climate changes on Earth. In 2008, out of the year's 365 days, the Sun was blank (no sunspots) 73% of the year, about 266 days. The Sun has been in the longest known solar minimum recorded since 1901 and 1913. That is, until now.
In May 2009, a coronal mass ejection was recorded coming from the far side of the Sun.
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This coronal mass ejection signals the start of a new Solar Cycle #24, which began in early May 2009. Now, the biggest sunspot in two years, called sunspot #1024, is at this time (early July 2009) rotating over the Sun's western limb.
This is one sure sign of coming climate changes for the Earth, and, along with the planetary positions for later this year - throughout 2010 - the world will experience another very strong ENSO in my estimation.
I also expect this new Solar maximum cycle to grow stronger into the early-to-mid-2010s, which will mean a very active several years of climate changes, featuring intense weather patterns on the Earth.
This will be an historic solar maximum lasting to about the year 2015-16 - three years longer than expected by most scientists.
In my estimation, since the Cycle of The Sun began in May 1980 causing the eruption of Mount St. Helen's and opening up the 36-year phase of global warming, I expect the Sun's new maximum to close on its cycle with a very active series of sunspot activity to rival many previous maximums and cause the Earth's climate to react powerfully between 2010 through to the year 2016.
Because of this, we are facing a strong six-to-seven year series of climate events that will close the door on global warming and open up a new global cooling cycle, but the damaging effects of global warming caused by the Sun's activity since 1980 will last far into the future.
EL NINO 2010
For over two years, I continued to forecast that El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, but also witnessing droughts in the southern to mid-western United States, and severe droughts in the counties of Australia, China, India, Indonesia, India, Philippines, and Africa.
One region of the world - South Asia - will see an incredible series of climate-related disasters as a result from the Sun's activity and effects on the world's coverall climate. I have calculated that the world's population at risk from the activity of the Sun, i.e., ENSO-related disasters, is somewhere between 187 to 250 million people globally.
Forecasters, climatologists, meteorologists, and those who are weather and climate spotters and watchers will have their hands very full dealing with ENSO-related weather patterns from now through to June 2012.
This summer and autumn is a good time to get your weather equipment set and tuned up. It is also essential for those living in regions where El Nino is known to have particular weather effects to prepare your emergency plans and store supplies for the latter half of 2009 and all through the year 2010, 2011, and 2012.
Further plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016.
The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) and precipitation patterns will greatly affect seasonal forecasts during these years to the extent where forecasters will have to use ENSO models to adjust their seasonal forecasts for annual rain, drought, and snowfall amounts in North America, and elsewhere.
Because ENSO conditions are not regulated to calendar years, and often extend beyond one year, through to three or four years in length at times, the best conventional models not based on astronomic calculations on the causes, but those related to building readings of the effects would be Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) readings; the Southern Oscillation Model (SOI) and the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) for large position values (El Nino) and to read for coming large negative values (La Nina.)
At this time in July 2009, scientists are already seeing the precursor signs of the onset phase of ENSO with seasonal warming off the coasts of Peru persisting. By late August 2009, sea-surface temperatures will continue to rise, and we should see changes in the SOI models further confirming ENSO with negative values, along with recording of pressure increases at Darwin station in Australia matched by pressure decreases at the Tahiti climate station.
Odd La Nina Anomaly in 2011?
Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting what appears to be some kind of "mini" La Nina event for the Northern hemispheric winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.
There is a very strong potential of heavier than normal snowfalls along the eastern seaboard of the United States at that time especially affecting the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern states with drought spreading from southern Texas along to the Gulf states and into parts of the central Midwest.
The spring of 2011 looks surprising sluggish again, and reminds me slightly of the spring of 2009 - but with ENSO climate impacts. The month of February 2011 is particularly odd, as the month of January 2011 seems to be warmer and windier than usual for many regions in the United States - with one exception - there appears to be more snow for the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. with the heaviest snows falling in the month of March 2011.
Drought is also one my biggest concerns from this particular ENSO. Because of certain astronomic indications, some of the world's regions other than the southern to Midwestern United States will see a the spread of droughts and dust storms that may last into the year 2015 at varying intensities along the way - leading to starvation from the year-after-year lack of rains, particularly in parts of eastern and central Africa, all of India, northern & southern China, Indonesia, northern and central Australia, the Philippines, and Japan.
I expect drought conditions to lead to increasing threat of food shortages, and large brush fires in countries like Sumatra, with another air-pollution alert in the neighboring countries of Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore.
Another concern are water-born diseases like cholera and malaria resulting from heavy rainfall and increased precipitation along with the warmer temperatures associated with El Nino years. This will be particularly the case in central America where intense hurricanes in the southern and central Pacific will rage in 2010. Typhoons will also be active in the eastern region of northwestern Pacific.
I've been forecasting a warmer and wetter winter for most of North America in Winter 2010, plus, just before this coming winter arrives, increasing rains for the Far West, stretching into the Inter-mountain west, and the Pacific Northwest, heavy rains in the Southwestern Desert states and Southeastern U.S.
The U.S. East Coast will experience a warmer winter, but with enough precipitation and humidity to produce snow. However, these snows will be below average, and in winter 2010
No two El Ninos are the same, this is because although there are similar astronomical configurations, several bodies of these configurations often vary, producing multiple levels of length and intensities to both El Nino and La Nina types that affect the world's weather.
From National Geographic's report on the 1997-1998 El Nino event, "Nature's Vicious Cycle", we read -
""Peru was where it all began, but El Niño’s abnormal effects on the main components of climate—sunshine, temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, cloud formation, and ocean currents—changed weather patterns across the equatorial Pacific and in turn around the globe.
Indonesia and surrounding regions suffered months of drought. Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.
Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.
In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.
By the time the debris settled and the collective misery was tallied, the devastation had in some respects exceeded even that of the El Niño of 1982-83, which killed 2,000 worldwide and caused about 13 billion dollars in damage."
The astronomical conditions that affect the Humboldt Current in the Pacific are not used by conventional scientists who still have a very hard time understanding why the trade winds die down, with air pressure flipping to southern oscillation, or ENSO. Statistical data is not reliable for these kinds of climate conditions, and often the data scales used do not provide the reasons for the causes of El Nino and La Nina.
ASTROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST & TELECONNECTIONS
In astrometeorology, the causes are known to be the activity of the Sun, and the modulating influences of the planets relative to the Earth. In 2009, there are astronomical conditions now building that strongly indicate that the Sun is about to emerge of its minimum which it entered in 2006, and the resulting increased sunspot activity signals that a warming of the Humboldt Current is about to begin in earnest.
The year 1980, in astrometeorology, indicated that new configurations of astronomic activity called the "Cycle of the Sun" would begin with global warming, and extend for 36 years to about the year 2016, when a new cooling climate cycle would begin to emerge with record drops in world temperatures in the year 2017.
I have been forecasting for several years now that while the Earth will see another very strong El Nino, what we should really be concerned about longer-range is the increasing appearances of La Ninas, which often follow in the tracks of El Nino years, and produce the opposite effect - signs of a cooling global climate.
In my calculations, a new global cooling climate is on the way for the world, and will begin in the year 2017 with record temperature drops, continuing with cooler climate anomalies increasing in the 2020s, and coming to a peak by the mid-2030s.
The world is about to enter a long global cooling climate phase. Though the effects of the previous 36-year global warming will be with the Earth for many years to come, it will have officially come to an end by 2016-2017.
Records of El Ninos in the 20th century have shown that over the past 100 years there may have been at least 23 El Ninos and 15 La Ninas. Out of the most powerful 10 El Ninos of the last century, four (4) of the most damaging El Ninos have occurred since the year 1980 - the first year of global warming caused by the Cycle of the Sun (1980-2016.)
The coming ENSO in 2009 will emerge from neutral to moderate, but will still not be strong enough yet to harm Australia's wheat crops this year, however, the years 2010 and beyond to the mid-2010s will be a very different matter. In addition, we will begin to see more climate events associated with the Sun's activity through El Nino at the end of September 2009, and surely by the second week of January 2010.
I have calculated that by the time Jupiter emerges from the far side of the Sun on February 28, 2010, that the Sun will officially begin to increase and multiply its sunspot development for its new solar maximum cycle with additional coronal mass ejections through 2010 and 2011.
The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98, according to my calculations, and will come close to rivaling that climate event, with lingering weather problems as a result beginning in the latter half of 2009 through to about June 2012. From the astronomical configurations, it appears that the ENSO of 2010-2012 will be a combination of the ENSO climate events of 1982-83 and that of 1997-1998.
However, 2010-11 is the big year for ENSO conditions.
OUTLOOK FOR WINTER 2010
In my ENSO forecast, I am seeing astronomic configurations that show this particular El Nino's warm temperatures will extend from the Humboldt Current in the Pacific, into coastal California, striking further south into the Antarctic.
The year 2010 has some of the strangest, and varied climate conditions I've seen in a quite a while. It is a year of many transitions - from brief, but powerful winter storms for the central Midwest and Eastern U.S., to a very wet climate in the far West, Southwest, and Southeastern U.S., featuring constant rains and torrential downpours with other regions on the other side of the world experiencing severe droughts, and praying for rain while back on the other side of the world, people are praying for the constant rains and flooding to stop.
There is a threat of freezing rains and ice storms affecting parts of the Great Lakes, Upper to Central Midwest, the Northeastern U.S., parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England in January 2010.
The storms and torrential rains in the U.S. Southwestern and Desert Southeastern states will lead to localized flooding of rivers, and give the climate a very tropical, and wetter feel in 2010. Record rainfall is expected by me in these regions of the United States beginning in late 2009 and extending through all of 2010.
There are radical temperature variations and shifts, high gusting winds, then, giving way to increasing precipitation once more, to warm and muggy conditions, then, suddenly cooler and crisp weather conditions (almost La Nina-like) then, back to cold and very wet conditions in the autumn of 2010 to a shortened Winter of 2011 that doesn't even start until early February of that year, and which ends in March 2011 almost as soon as the winter got started in North America, leading to a very odd spring of 2011, that is at once cold, wet, then much warmer than normal almost at the same time.
Finally, by the summer of 2011 - we get a traditional summer season, and then a traditional fall season leading to a traditional winter season in North America, only to head into one of the earliest spring seasons in recent memory in the month of February 2012.
The year of 2010 into 2011 seems to have a very wide assortment of many varieties of climate conditions for everyone packed into one year - clearly a unique ENSO climate year for the world if there ever was one.
Moreover, the regions of India, Australia, Indonesia and China will be severely tested by a drought that will last into the mid-2010s when all is said and done. The lack of rains in this sector of the planet will make worldwide news, and cause a great amount of suffering if steps are not taken immediately to stock up food reserves before the worst of this El Nino has done its damage.
According to my calculations, the year 2010 will go down as one of the warmest and wettest years in recent memory in North and South America. The ENSO effects on the 2010 Winter Olympic Games in Vancouver, Canada will affect the games with warmer than average weather, even warmer than Vancouver's average February temperature of 4.8 °C (40.6 °F). Snow will fall in Whistler, B.C., just prior to the games, but the warm weather will continue to be a serious concern for ski events during the length of the two-week event as the climate continues to be warmer than average.
For regions in the United States, including the Southeastern, and Mid-Atlantic states, ENSO conditions will feature heavy rains and winds starting in the second half of the month November 2009, continuing to about December 10, 2009. The onset of colder temperatures will arrive at the end of December, but with below average snowfall for many regions, excepting parts of the Inter-mountain west, and Upper Plains states.
The second half of December 2009 continues to see the shift from windy, warmer than average temperatures from much of December, then turning colder, and continued windy after Christmas Day and with snow falling during the daylight hours of New Year's Eve in New York.
January 2010 features average plunging colder than average temperatures starting off on January 1, 2010, with temperatures continuing to remain below average through the month, and featuring negligible snowfall for two-thirds of the nation, but with colder temperatures striking as far south as Texas and as far east as New England.
Mid-to-late January 2010 continues to be very cold throughout most of the United States with below normal average temperatures. The air is particularly biting cold, and sometimes wet to the bone with the threat of freezing rains and ice storms developing.
I am looking at the potential for an ice storm for the Northeastern U.S., also affecting New England and Southeastern Canada in mid-January 2010. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic could also be affected. The dates are Jan. 20,21,22,23,24,25. Resident should carefully watch freezing rains in January, and take precautions against the development of ice storms at that time.
After January 25, 2010, the climate, though very cold for two-thirds of the country, will begin a warming trend that will speed up in the month of February, and lead to warmer than average temperatures by late February and into March 2010.
In February 2010, the climate continues to be windy and very cold with ice events occurring during the month, but temperatures begin to warm by February 15 in the Eastern and mid-western states. The Wyoming and Colorado Rockies continues to be colder than average in January and February with Chinook-like gusting winds, and blizzard like conditions with above average amounts of snowfall for the entire winter 2010. The best conditions for skiing in the nation will be in the Colorado Rockies in the entire winter of 2010.
The second half of February 2010's climate turns warmer east of the Rockies and leads to increasing precipitation of rain, mixed with snow showers through to the end of the month. Winter will effectively will come to an end on February 28, 2010.
The temperatures continue to warm into March 2010, with increasing precipitation in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. Most of the month of March is very wet, with warmer than average temperatures in North America.
Spring will rush in early in 2010, and be much warmer, and drier than average in in the second half of March, all of April and May 2010. There is a humidity in the air during spring 2010 that points to summer coming on faster than usual in North America.
By late April/early May 2010, it will effectively be summer already in the eyes of many. Spring will have hardly had a chance to mature before the summer climate intrudes with much warmer than average temperatures.
The climate for North America turns downright muggy, stormy and much wetter than normal in June 2010. Summer has arrived much earlier than expected with summer thunderstorms and heavy rains typically seen in late late summer occurring for most of June.
The June 2010 climate is warm, wet, tropical and muggy with radical temperatures shifts from developing cold fronts meeting warm fronts and resulting in bouts of torrential downpours with large-sized hail, and thunderstorms. The downpours end about July 3, 2010, with a return to warmer than average, and humid temperatures for the month of July.
Drought regions will be further south, in Texas, and stretch to the Southwestern U.S., and into regions of Nevada, and eastern California. Extended droughts can be expected to appear around the Gulf states, with less precipitation extending into the central to upper mid-western states.
Increasing precipitation will be featured for coastal areas along California and stretching as far as the Gulf of Alaska, where fishing routes will see more warmer species being found as far as Alaska.
July and August 2010 sees fair summer weather, much like that of June, as temperatures begin to moderate from warm, humid, and muggy, to sometimes crisp and cool late September-like temperatures more common of the fall season than August, although August 2010 is more sultry in temperatures than the previous month of July, with partly cloudy skies, and most days seeing September-like weather in early August.
September 2010's skies are mostly clear, but stormy at times. September will actually feel to be warmer than the previous month of August felt to be. A rainy season in North America begins with a preview of what is to come in autumn 2010, with warm and tropical like September 2010 that gives ways into very wet, misty, and fog-shrouded October.
Mid-October 2010 sees some of the most dense fogs encountered for some years throughout regions of the country; especially on the West and East coasts, and in the Southeastern U.S., and Upper Great Lakes region. Air temperatures are warmer than average in October - mainly, a wet, dreary, clammy and foggy month.
This wet, foggy, and clammy climate continues into November 2010, when the the temperatures moderate to above average warm temperatures, with a combination of very wet, warm, and sometimes windy conditions pervading through the month. The second half of November sees clearing skies, above average temperatures but with increasingly windy conditions.
The foggy weather since October becomes less common after November 16, 2010, giving way to bright blue skies sometimes interrupted by sudden rains and gusting winds frequently during the month. The last three (3) days of November 2010 is colder, wet, with damaging winds, and very stormy.
December 2010 continues the stormy, wet, and windy weather across regions of the nation; especially for the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U..S., and the central Midwestern states. There are rare tornado activity at the end of November, and into early December stretching from the Central Midwestern states into the Ohio Valley and parts of western Pennsylvania.
The last 2-3 days of November, and the first week of December 2010 is particularly stormy across the nation; stormy seas in the Gulf of Alaska; torrential rains stretching from the Great Lakes through the central Midwest and extending down into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dense fogs in the valleys of the Great Plains lead to below average cold temperatures and snowfall in the Desert Southwest; snow also falls in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania, in Appalachia, and in the central Texas/Oklahoma panhandle, where winds, heavy rains lead to flooding.
The month of December 2010 is a very stormy month for most of the United States and offers a bit of everything from damaging winds, heavy torrential rains, blizzards, dense fogs, and thunder snow.
Radical and sudden temperatures shifts due the interplay between large warm and cold pressure systems that track through the country led by a powerful jet stream raging storms from the west to the southwest and then into southeastern U.S., and from the Northwest into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Northeastern U.S.
December 2010 will turn out to be one of the more significant weather months of the year before the climate weather settles down across most of the nation significantly by December 28, 2010.
All in all - the impact of ENSO on the United States, and much of the world will be very striking by the end of the common year of 2010. This particular El Nino appears to me to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO.
HEALTH & THE CLIMATE
Lastly, it is essential for those reading this forecast to remember the direct connection between the climate and health. The very active weather for the world starting later this year, and continuing, overall, through to the year 2016, will mean increasing rates of mortality around the world due to the extreme climate conditions.
Therefore, it is very important to begin to build up the immune systems of yourself and your families starting this year, and continuing through to the mid-2010s to fight off illnesses brought about by the extremes of the climate and radical weather patterns associated with climate changes of this kind.
A little each day can go a long way in building immune systems against an onslaught of diseases that thrive in extreme and changing climate conditions.
One way is to use Colloidal Silver. See - http://www.utopiasilver.com/
Use as instructed, and read about the many benefits this product has in helping to fight off a host of illnesses that attack the immune system. Ask your family physician about how to apply this product in your daily intake to ward off a host of diseases - especially those due to climate conditions that attack health and vitality.
Stay safe out there - it's going to be several years of a very rough ride when it comes to climate and weather for the world. Be prepared - not scared.
Wow! Thanks for the outlook! Are you saying that snowfall for North Idaho would be below normal due to the El Nino?
Hey there! Its me, wjp201111. I had to redo my account, so I am now wjp1102, lol.
I think You should Really Continue N Idaho Weather, it was a nice blog. OR... MAYBE A NEW BLOG Such as PNW Weather, or maybe if you're up for the Task, Perhaps some sort of Blog for the Entire USA's weather.
Anyhow.. Snowfall is hard to predict at this time, but it looks BELOW normal to me. December looks like the Coldest & snowiest month. January looks Warmer & Drier, & febuary looks to almost Mirror January. That is my Opinion. Anyhow, Have a great day:)
Speaking of Whistler/Blackcomb 2010; the peak is getting it's first snowfall of the season as we speak. Yay!!
Speaking of Whistler/Blackcomb 2010; the peak is getting it's first snowfall of the season as we speak. Yay!!
Yay! I looked at the webcams and you're right! :D
Your work and detail is greatly appreciated. Thanks again!
that was great but there wasent much about whats going to happen in the PNW where i live so i was wondering if u could awnser my question so will the PNW get lots of snow or little and what does this mean for volcanos does this mean Mt. ranier is going to erupt will there be lots of wind storms but next time could u add more about the west it
In the Accuweather forum, he told me we wouldn't get much snow... (this is for SW BC/PNW I guess) and for Feb/March/April 2011 I think he said there would be a mini La Nina that would give us above normal snow fall.
but thats in the spring and how many people from the regular almanac are on the accuweather forum i may join
About your comment on below how does nebraska/colorado/wyoming area getting hit hard with snows and cold most are saying is this true??-----
The Wyoming and Colorado Rockies continues to be colder than average in January and February with Chinook-like gusting winds, and blizzard like conditions with above average amounts of snowfall for the entire winter 2010
Hi Theo, hope you had a good summer. I don't have any questions--your forecast is so data-dense that if I had one, I'd be pretty sure you'd answered it and I missed it! I shall have to read this a few times. Thank you one more time for all your work and detail.
I'll definitely be on the heads up here in the Bay Area this late fall and winter for the coming El Nino season.
So good to see you made it to the new forum Theo. Had to print this out so I can take time to pour through it. Very thorough as usual. If I have any questions for Ohio I will catch you later.
A new year brings El Nino. Should be a great year of climate and weather events.
This is the most interesting thing that I have looked at regarding climate in the lower mainland of British Columbia. Theo, who are you?
"By late April/early May 2010, it will effectively be summer already in the eyes of many. Spring will have hardly had a chance to mature before the summer climate intrudes with much warmer than average temperatures."
What impact does this have on the possibility of tornado formation in the Plains states for May/early June?