Warm PNW Winter?

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I am in the STILL in the process of reviewing the model releases, and while only halfway through, I have noticed one clear trend. Above normal Temperature Anomalies in the PNW, and BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP. So if you are a WARM weather person, maybe this is your year. THERE STILL COULD BE CHANGES WITH THE REST OF THE RELEASES, BUT I PERSONALLY AM PREDICTING A SNOW DROUGHT FOR THE PNW, WHICH COULD LAST FOR THE NEXT DECADE!!!

Heres What I see so Far

-Temps WELL above Normal for the PNW region from January thru March.

-Temps SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL from Mid NOV thru Dec.

-Precip SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE from NOV thru DEC

-Precip BELOW AVERAGE from JAN thru MAR.

As of now, a winter like last one may take 15 years to generate, unless your way up in the cascades, ect.

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 23, 2009 02:32PM

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Are those models leaning

Are those models leaning towards an El Nino this winter?

Posted by: Andyidaho (IP Logged)
Date: August 23, 2009 03:02PM

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This site is awesome!

The information is really helpful. Thank you!

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Yes. They Have it weak to

Yes. They Have it weak to borderline moderate. HOWEVER, I personally believe The El Nino will fade to WEAK in the winter, and while I DON'T be the main driver in the climate, there will be no Active storm track thru the PNW, Nor will there be that consistant upper level Low over canada producing the PNW trough. A completely new patern, Any storm systems will come out of the SSW and pump that warm Pacific air in, but it appears to be a more "stagnant" atmosphere, a term I use for quiet, flowless, atmosphere. BELIEVE ME, THERE WILL BE RAIN, and thee will be pacific storms, but nothing prolonged active and cold.

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 23, 2009 03:59PM

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So you are thinking a mild

So you are thinking a mild winter in the United States or just portions ??

Posted by: spellbound (IP Logged)
Date: August 23, 2009 07:51PM

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THIS IS WHAT I SEE ON THE

THIS IS WHAT I SEE ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE RELEASES, REMEMBER, THIS COULD CHANGE.

I am thinking that The PNW, N Plains, Western Lakes, Midwest, and Perhaps Central Plains will be ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. I Am Thinking that the SE, Mid Atlantic, East Coast, Deep South, SW, and The Intermountain West Will Be BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS, And everywhere else seems AVERAGE TEMPS.

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 23, 2009 08:22PM

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This is Contrary to what Theo

This is Contrary to what Theo believes.

Summarization of Theo's predictions:
2010: Not much in terms of snow. Above normal temps for the winter, but lots of rain.
2011: There could be some sort of La Nina event later on in the Winter, this would produce some decent normalish levels of snow that we would see between December-Feb.
2012-2013: I believe he said something about more of a snow drought, but 2013 will start getting back to normal.
2014-2016: Temps going back to cool, winters starting to get more harsh.
2017-2020: This is the period that is supposed to set the world up for a worldwide global cooling trend for a certain period of time.

This is the summarization of what I remember what he was saying. It's no where as severe as what wjp is saying. Again, the 2010-2011 of what I summarized is for the PNW/SW BC. The rest is around the global levels or something like that.

You just have to read his predictions.

Anyways, this is your prediction thread but I don't believe it will be as severe as what you are saying.

Posted by: stuffradio (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 12:27AM

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It's the weather, a few

It's the weather, a few months in advance - remember, that this thread is all about, and NOBODY can tell with ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY what will happen at any given time!!

IT's the WEATHER !!!!!

P.

"Never a dull moment ANYTIME or ANYWHERE !!

Posted by: PJ (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 12:52AM

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Lies! I can predict the

Lies! I can predict the weather and be 100% accurate! If only that were true

Posted by: stuffradio (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 01:13AM

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Theo Uses his methods, I use

Theo Uses his methods, I use mine. If you want to believe Theo Instead of Me, I'm Fine with that. While I may not agree with him all the time, Forecasts will be different with every person, even if their thoughts are similar. I will say that I personally believe this El Nino will remain weak to PERHAPS borderline Moderate, but I HAVE NOT GONE THROUGH ALL THE SOURCES YET, AND WHAT I'VE MENTIONED ARE EARLY TRENDS THAT I SEE IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. I haven't made anything official, And THE CLIMATE WILL NEVER MAKE ANYTHING OFFICIAL.

NOBODY is going to predict the weather perfrectly, thats a fact. No matter what the Climate decides to do, at least we all put in effort to try and nail it down.

Have a great day

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 07:43AM

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with all of the long range

with all of the long range model guidance ive ever seen....rsm/gsm//euro weeklies/euro monthlies/cfs sesasonal almost always they change millions of times and are never right about what they are trying to forecast....and you almost have to question the validity of these forecasts with such an extended solar minimum like we are in now...i wouldnt get too worried if you are in the pnw just yet

Posted by: Phr0z3n (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 07:50AM

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They do change, that I know,

They do change, that I know, but I wouldn't go as far as to say that they're always wrong and useless, otherwise they wouldn't exist. I understand the problem you're bringing up, but In my years of forecasting, Looking at the August releases, and plugging in the Historical data, is a good starting point, and has proven to be very useful for me looking long range.
How do You Read the ENSO, PDO, and anything else long term? You need computers and records. Climatology hinges on long term Model forecasts, and keeping records is just as important. Imagine being a climatologist with no Satallites, Computers, or records.

Everyone has their own methods of forecasting. I have found a way that suits me well, and is reasonably accurate.

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 08:52AM

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we'll see if they are right

we'll see if they are right with your analysis about the pnw winter...personally i like analogs over long range experimental forecast models.with the reasoning that medium and short range models cant even get it right alot of the time with the error going up significantly with each hour they try to forecast

Posted by: Phr0z3n (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 12:07PM

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I'm basing my forecast on

I'm basing my forecast on analogs. As a result, I don't see a warm winter for the PNW.

Posted by: Andyidaho (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 10:46PM

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Agreed.

There's no possible way to forecast a decade out. It's impossible.

Analogs are the best thing we have. I actually think what wjp1011 (whatever it is) is forecasting a winter very similar to last year. Cool + wet start, then a 2+ month dry spell.

I couldn't disagree with these statements more. It's currently reasonable to expect an average snowfall year with average temperatures.

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I do use analogs quite often,

I do use analogs quite often, but I use models first, and I still see Above normal Anomalies

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 24, 2009 10:59PM

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I live in the East however i

I live in the East however i am speaking on all our behalfs and I cant see with confidence that anyone can predict for any area that a drought or snow drought or anything else will last for the next decade.and for those in the PNW dont worry about a snow drought lasting a decade. this is just a wild guess by one man and his best friend the computer looking at enso and all that mess .I resonably and sincerely predict the trend for the next decade and beyond will be for variability.neg pdo alone if continuing to last beyond the next decade should mean more la ninas and more cases where el nino is more quickly replaced by a la nina should say NO to a continuous decade long snow drought and i am betting the farm that he is wrong by a long shot on that one.Nice try Wip201111. And the last neg pdo from around 1947 to 1977 had its years that el nino appeared and one or two were fairly strong (not like 1997-98) but still strong like 1957-58 and 1966(borderline strong) and 1972-73 and other weaker events that last neg pdo cycle 1963 1968 1969 and 1953 and yeah next year may not be good for the PNW for serious snows or even a couple years if el nino or it's remnants linger that long but not a whole decade nonstop unless in the unheard of unlikelyhood that there were to be a decade long nonstop el nino and we know that's not gonna happen at all.

Posted by: blizzardof1888 (IP Logged)
Date: August 25, 2009 01:33AM

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There is NO global warming,

There is NO global warming, well, that's my take on it. This Possible snow drought will have NOTHING to do with global Warming, because it is non existent. HERE IS MY TAKE ON THE HIGH OCEAN TEMP 130 YEARS(Its Phony)

Some areas of The arctic are actually below average, so they're measuring the warm anomalies. And If the oceans are warming, the atmosphere must warm significantly prior to the sea warming, and the atmosphere has not done so. This critisizm is NOT directed at you, it is directed to whoever Made these readings. HERES MY PREVIOUS RESPONSE:

Honestly, while this article represents a global scale, I personally believe that there is some sort of twist to this. And to be honest, "Global Warming", while it WAS occuring a few decades ago, has no proof of even existing at this point. In fact, the 4 world Temperature monitoring centers around the globe have reported that as of the last reading, temperatures have dropped enough globally over the past 4 yrs to erase the warming over the past Century. Not to mention that 95% of our global temperature is controlled by Much larger, more powerful force(s), such as Solar Activity, and the earths vertical tilt. Do you think that WE are strong enough to cause an ice age?... NO. Also, in no way are we powerful enough to raise sea surface anomalies this much over the years. And besides, the Global ATMOSPHERIC Temperatures need to warm significantly prior to a sea temperature rise, which they have not. This in my opinion proves to be natural rather than man made, at least for the most part. I'm not saying that global Warming doesn't exist, but there is obviously something going wrong here. AND JUST FOR THE POINT... If the "warmest sea surface temp anomaly were warming at the rate described, eventually you would have "freshening" going into the Atlantic current belt, and when the water densities differ, you will have the currents cut off as the water sinks, and they will shut off. That was the focal point of the "Mini Ice Age" in the 1600's, no man made global warming there, all natural causes. Once again, I'm not saying global Warming is non-existent, as it WAS occurring, but I see no major shift mounting towards it now.

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 25, 2009 05:23PM

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there is this west coast

there is this west coast weather blog i got the website from andyidaho that says its going to be another cool and snowy winter ahead for at least the early part of the winter

Dreaming of winter

Posted by: snowman5678 (IP Logged)
Date: August 27, 2009 07:42PM

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West Coast weather blog

Hello, is there anyway I can get that site address? I live in the foothills east of Stockton California and I would like to know what people are thinking for our neck of the world. Thanks.

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As I said, Winter may Start

As I said, Winter may Start Out Cool, and perhaps wet, But that will Change by Midwinter, Well, that's my take on it

Posted by: wjp201111 (IP Logged)
Date: August 27, 2009 10:10PM

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Well, so far (sept) we're

Well, so far (sept) we're likely going to end up WAAAAY above average, at least for temps. It's been pretty dry so far, however we are likely going to get some good rain in the next few days. Temps staying warm for a while yet.

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The gfs is showing fall like

The gfs is showing fall like temps invading the area with the onset of oct.

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Yea, same here

Same hre

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hey WJP

hey Wjp can you help me make a outlook you said you would send me a private message with the info to help start me off could u send it

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Also, it's showing the

Also, it's showing the possibility of some mountain snow around mid next week... it seems a little early for that, but hey, I'm not going to argue at this point, lol!

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yep its looking true to me

yep its looking true to me lows for my aread in duval next week are going to be in the lower 40s with a chance of hits the 30s!!! not sure if its true but thats what i know

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Is this storm cold enough?

Is this storm cold enough to bring snow down to 3000ft?

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hope this helps

where do you live i am sugesting idaho so are you looking for when it will start there im looking at the Gfs models and i am not very good at reading them but it is looking like around 3000 to 4500 feet for Sept 30 at around 6 AM starting in the cascades and moutains to the north moving into idaho areas around thurday at 6 AM hope this helps you

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i see

i see at the same time cold air moving into the dakotas and making its way south and east wards into the great lakes region as far south as idianapolis idiana tuesday then making its way eastward and reaches the North East by thurday extending as far south as philidelphia and as that moves out another one comes in to the picture bringing rain to the great lakes region by saturday then bringing heavy rain to the north east on sunday with this pesky low preasure system with a status of 999 MB bringing a inch and a half of rain for areas

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I have a feeling this will

I have a feeling this will bring snow levels to about 4500-5000 ft for our area. The lower the better :D!!

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yep

yeah but like i said i am not very good at reading the models yet :D and you are right the lower the better :D :D :D

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Fall/Winter 2011

I live in the Mid-Atlantic are there any pre-predictions? Will we have another rainy fall which probably means another snowy winter? Or will we be spared this time? WHEW!

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rep

It's good for me and my job. Thank you much!

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Oklahoma

We had a terrible Ice storm last winter wondering if it's going to be te same weather for this year. Usually snow on christmas. Were in southwest Oklahoma

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