WINTER 2010 OUTLOOK

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Joined: 2009-09-06

This is Just a quick summary of the winter since my old outlook was Removed:(

ANYHOW...

-DECEMBER looks cool & Stormy for the PNW. The Great Lakes Look FRIGID to the bone, while the NE looks Chilly & WET/SNOWY. The Coastal SE looks Warm & WET, and the Mid Atlantic Looks Average in all aspects, while the SW Remains Warmer than Normal with slightly below average precip. Frigid across the US plains.

JANUARY looks WARMER & DRIER for the PNW, while the SW looks average in all aspects. The Great Lakes/Midwest look Absolutly BRUTAL, while the NE looks Stormy, along with the Middle atlantic. Snowfall is uncertain there. The SE looks Average away from the coast, and warm near the coast, with very wet weather conditions. Exception is the S PLains(including Texas) where Cool & Wet Weather should be the rule.

FEBUARY looks Warm for the PNW, with average precip. The Midwest & Lakes look once again Brutal. VERY COLD & SNOWY Northeast & Mid Atlantic, with possible Blizzard(s), very windy there as well. The SE US looks Cold to start, the Warming up. The SW looks Pleasant & possibly moist, while the Entire Heartland of the country looks Cold with average precip.

I hope my old outlook will be reposted, because I don't have the time right now to make another one.

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Joined: 2009-08-08
:'(

i was hoping for lots of snow for the PNW but i know thats not going to happen and how does everybody make the weather outlooks ??? if anybody could help me with that it would be great

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Joined: 2009-09-06
Reply to snowman

Actually snowman, all you really need are your reasources, your mind and your opinion.

BY reasources, I mean Analogs, Computer Models, Solar readings, etc. WHATEVER YOU WANT TO USE. I personally use All three to make a forecast. I Usually Get the Readings Of the Current Climatological Setup, Look at extended CP modeling of Major Climate "hubs" Or what I call the "weather drivers" Meaning the Powerful Phenomenon that often run the climate. I usually then Thuroughly Scan The oct - apr. Model releases. Afterwards, I look at the current setup and potential Future Setup, and Use that to determine the Proper Analogs. I then Find Solar Readings, and Finally Plug it all in, and My result is a long range outlook. I would usually give myself maybe 75%-80% accuracy, maybe thats a stretch. My last outlook for the Summer was not so good, maybe 60% from my calculations. Anyhow, thats my way of making an outlook, and Whatever you have access to, whether it be the GFS, Analog Data, Or whatever, as long as you have your opinion based on your reasources, you can make an outlook, anyone can do it if they want.

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Joined: 2009-08-08
thanks!!!

thanks but also were do you get all of your resources

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Joined: 2009-09-06
Reasources

In My Work, I look at these "resources" daily, Monday thru Friday. However, Some Forms of the EURO, JMA, Canadian, well... All but the GFS can cost a significant amount of money to run, and I don't think they are Run Privately(meaning proffessional Climatologists, Meteorologists, etc. use them in their work, but they may not be available to people in their private homes). The GFS, a 15.5 day long range model, is available off of many weather sites online, along with the DGEX, Some forms of the JMA, RUC, NEOGAPS, ETC. I cannot give website names o this forum, unfortunaty, but you can stay in touch with pro senior meteorologists on some sites, and can chat and learn.

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Joined: 2009-08-08
ok

the only resource i have is the noaa predictions and GFS model run

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Joined: 2009-09-06
reasources

You can find all sorts of data at NOAA, so much it could fill your computer hard drive. Thats where you can Get NOAA's outlooks(which I have to say are very biased toward global Warming in my opinion), analogs, And Model Releases. (and yes, I as a forecaster often stand alone in my Theory of Future Global Cooling) its all online. You can find it, then put together your data, and BAM, you have a forecast. Don't be afraid to make a mistake, because no forecast will be 100% correct. I make a whole lot of mistakes, and my Summer 2009 outlook was a good example of that, I got maybe a 60% accuracy. Whenever someone makes a forecast, they are at risk of being wrong & critisized if they show it to the public, and I can't count the number of times I've been bashed by you guys o the forum, LOL.

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Joined: 2009-08-27
me too

I've had my share of bashing. Remember the winter of 2007? I sent out my forecast and got bashed big time. It discouraged me a lot and ever since, I only forecast for North Idaho. I can still remember all the times I was called a wish caster and someone who is terrible at forecasting. :(

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Joined: 2009-08-07
California

Hi.. Andy I read somewhere that you had a web site for california weather and forecasts? I have asked for anyones input and I am not getting any responses...any help would be greatly appreciated..

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Joined: 2009-08-27
huh?

Sorry, but I only forecast for North Idaho. I think you're thinking of someone else.

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Joined: 2009-09-06
I know the feeling

I know the feeling, lol.

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Joined: 2009-08-07
Any winter predictions for East tenn?

Just wondering if ayone here could give me some insight on this upcomming winter for my area. Thanks, Laura from east tenn. PS. I see signs of a early winter where I live.

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Joined: 2009-09-06
East Tenn. winter

While things will become clearer as winter approaches, Tenn. Is in a zone of uncertainty for me. I do know the SE US will not need to worry about that pesky SE ridge. One thing looks the same through past data, that that is variabitlty. My Forecast for the El Nino to fade to Very Weak Into the winter months, if true, can feature even more variability, as strong ENSO phases are much easier to forecast. I would caution you to keep a close watch out, because winter can catch you unprepared very quickly, so stay tuned :).

wjp1102

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Joined: 2009-09-09
Central US

Hey wjp what does the central us winter look like for colorado,wyoming,nebraska area , what can we be in for any ideas? Much appreciated, keep up the good work

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Joined: 2009-08-07
snow drought

wjp1102 is there a good chance of a snow drought for the midwest expecially the fort wayne, indiana area? By the looks of your forcast above, it just seems too cold to have much moisture at all for that wide area!

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Joined: 2009-09-06
Snow Drought

While I am Predicting Below AVG precip for the Fort Wayne Area, I am predicting average to possibly slight above average snowfall, as most precip that falls will be as snow, ESCPECIALLY from JAN 3rd to FEB 21st. But the Midwestern Region as a whole should recieve less snowfall than the La Nina years, where chicago would get pounded, for example. I am not anticipating a persistant storm track through the Midwest, but frigid air should be the rule this winter, very Cold.

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Joined: 2009-08-08
where

where do i get the info to make a forecast on the noaa website

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Joined: 2009-09-06
NOAA

(PLEASE READ ENTIRE REPLY)

If you want to use the data provided by NOAA, (for example, their analog years) Just search for the years similarly structured to this one (such as 1966 for example). Get your data(you can search anywhere on the web for the info), and when you get a detailed look at the winters you want, and when you get a good look at the climatological structure of the current year, BAM there you go. LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO HEAVILY BASED UPON OPINION, SO IF YOU SEE SOMETHING THAT SEEMS OFF TO YOU, USE YOUR OPINION. If that is a little difficult, maybe I can personal Message you some data, and you can go from there, but I know you have potential to make a great outlook:)

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Joined: 2009-08-08
Thanks so much

thanks so much wjp you have been a huge help for me i have wanted to make my own forecasts and outlooks and now i hopefully can :D:D:D:D:D yeah i am probally going to need some help i will start tommorow morning

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Joined: 2009-08-08
How???

how do i get to previous winter outlooks on noaa like i am going to look at the 1966 winter and others but how do i find it

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Joined: 2009-08-08
could you help

if you could help wjp to help get me started that would be awsome :D

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Joined: 2009-09-06
OK

OK I will P M you some data, First I have to gather it. I'll be as quick as possible.

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Joined: 2009-08-08
thanks...again

thanks so much again wjp

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Joined: 2009-08-07
winter 2010

In the Northeast, last winter was somewhat of a departure from the mild and snow deficient winters of the recent past. I expect this winter to be similar. I noticed OFA is thinking snow around Thanksgiving. While there was a spell of very cold air last November there was not a flake in the Boston area and winter didnt lock in until near the middle of Dec. When the ENSO is relatively weak, it's best to go with persistence, which is to say I think the coming winter will be colder and snowier than average but not brutal. Again, like last winter.

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Joined: 2009-09-06
It depends where you are in

It depends where you are in the region. Storm track is also very important when considering where the cold snowy areas will be and the warm dry areas will be, or visa-versa. One aspect I think this Nino will have is its erratic stage of development. Personally, I do think this El Nino will peak this fall before weakening into the winter. However, this winter should feature some aspects of both a Neutral ENSO and an El Nino. First off, The Great Lakes & Midwest Look FRIGID and DRY to me. The PNW looks to Have a Cold DEC, and Warm from there. The NE US looks COLDER inland than on the coast, where I anticipate average to slightly below average temps. The SE US looks Warm by the coasts, and chilly far inland, and Average temps should rule elsewhere.

If Southern California thinks heavy rains and high winds are in store because of the "El Nino", I would rethink that. This Nino is West Based/east based QBO and its structure is poor and it develoment has been erratic. With the Cold PDO phase, and other factors, this El NIno will be beaten down and inhibited. Looking at the proper analogs, I see this winter being a strong Late winter snow season for the Middle Atlantic & NE, but at the same time, much different structurally than the last.

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Joined: 2009-09-09
Central US Area WJP

Hey wjp what does the central us winter look like for colorado,wyoming,nebraska area , what can we be in for any ideas? Much appreciated, keep up the good work

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Joined: 2009-09-06
winter

looks cold, with average to below average, temps, but average snowfall or more is likely

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Joined: 2009-09-08
winter

what do you think think that winter will be like here in southern ontraio canada i am looking to put a rink in my backyard. any thoughts would be great.

hockeynut

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Joined: 2009-09-06
Again, sorry about the BOLD

Again, sorry about the BOLD forecasts, tsjta I am. Anywa, MY preception for ontaio is a Cold, Dry Winter

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Joined: 2009-09-24
WINTER ON LONG ISLAND

What does the upcoming winter look like for the new york city area and the mid-atlantic section of the NorthEast?Id love to know.Thank you.

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Joined: 2009-09-06
NE & MID ATL

This winter is very different than the last. I predict an active storm track thru the SE and Occasionally Up The Coast. I PREDICT A VERY SNOWY FEBUARY, A COLD JANUARY, & AN AVERAGE DECEMBER. Overall, while it won't be Frgid, it will be Cold, Snowy winter, with a potential return of the "Classic Noreaster" in Febuary, but not limited to the month.

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