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I HAVE FINISHED MY WINTER 201 OUTLOOK BELOW!!!!! :)
Basically, I've checked the status of the El Nino, The Long Range Model releases, and reasonably proper Analog data. Heres what I've come up with.
Currently we Have a West Based Weak to Borderline Moderate El Nino in the Equatorial Pacific with an East Based QBO. The SOI values are right about where I expected 4 months ago, and the PDO is in a Negative phase synced in the +EPO. The PNA has been strongly positive, and looks to fluctuate in that way with a Neutral to eventual Negative phase of the NAO for now.
Once I retrieved this data, I looked at reasonably similar analog years( for Example, 1966, 2003, etc.) Looking at those analogs and many others, they seemed to feature EITHER a Solar Minimum to some extent, or the Climatological setup currently being featured.
When analyzing the data I came up with the forecast Below.
- I predict that this El Nino will Peak late this fall, and the WEAKEN through the winter months.
-The SW Region of the US will experience stormier weather compared to the past 2 winters.
-The Pacific Northwest Will have a WARMER winter, Following a Cool & Stormy NOV - DEC. Snowfall for the region as a whole will Be BELOW average, even in the mountains.
-The Great Lakes/Midwest will be FRIGID!!! After a Snowy December, a Cold & Dry Remainder of the Winter seems likely.
-The Southeastern US (including South Florida) Looks Slightly Cooler & Wetter than Normal.
-The Mid Atlantic & Northeast look to feature a Cold & Snowy Winter. FEBUARY Looks like the Snowiest Month, While December Looks like the most Tranquil. January will be Cold.
TO SUM IT UP...
-DECEMBER looks cool & Stormy for the PNW. The Great Lakes Look FRIGID to the bone, while the NE looks Chilly & WET/SNOWY. The Coastal SE looks Warm & WET, and the Mid Atlantic Looks Average in all aspects, while the SW Remains Warmer than Normal with slightly below average precip. Frigid across the US plains.
JANUARY looks WARMER & DRIER for the PNW, while the SW looks average in all aspects. The Great Lakes/Midwest look Absolutly BRUTAL, while the NE looks Stormy, along with the Middle atlantic. Snowfall is uncertain there. The SE looks Average away from the coast, and warm near the coast, with very wet weather conditions. Exception is the S PLains(including Texas) where Cool & Wet Weather should be the rule.
FEBUARY looks Warm for the PNW, with average precip. The Midwest & Lakes look once again Brutal. VERY COLD & SNOWY Northeast & Mid Atlantic, with possible Blizzard(s), very windy there as well. The SE US looks Cold to start, the Warming up. The SW looks Pleasant & possibly moist, while the Entire Heartland of the country looks Cold with average precip.
HOPE YOU ENJOY THE FORECAST:)