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Agreed. The Modoki version is
Agreed. The Modoki version is similar but different but more data is needed to truly discern Modoki as something different. But to the point I was trying to make, for the State of Jefferson in northernmost California (CA), an autumnal El Nino would lead to anomalously low precipitation for those months. Thus I'd be careful for what I wished for. Too El Nino in California is not the same as El Nino in Nebraska (NE). In both cases, these states are trying to grow food with a finite supply of water but in the face of growing demand for the water from other users. In my estimation, when groundwater supplies are exhausted in CA and NE, irrigation for food will cease, and what now would seem to be a "Black Swan event" will have transpired. If only we knew now what we'll know then. Oh wait. We do. It's just a lack of will, more than money, to prepare for such an outcome. Climate change such as the Arctic Amplification and changes in polar jet stream meanders are a tocsin or early warning of catastrophic change from today's climate to a different climate regime; e.g., wet is getting wetter and dry is getting drier. I've read the Farmers Almanac since I was quite young. I think that prognostication would probably have been quite good from 1950 through 1979 since climate was rather static or stationary back then. But given the recent changes in the various states of the ocean, atmosphere, and land, I would be surprised if anyone could accurately predict future weather based on prior climate. So kudos to you for trying.