The Art, Science, and Accident of Predicting the Weather

By Anastasia Kusterbeck

Believe it or not, at one time people thought that weather occurred in only one place and simply stayed put. (Benjamin Franklin first suspected this was untrue when he learned that a storm he experienced in Philadelphia was followed by a suspiciously similar one in Boston the next night.) In those days, predictions were based on the observations of courageous balloonists who went aloft in search of approaching storms. More often than not, these airborne oracles almost passed out from lack of oxygen.

Did You Know?

Weather information sharing is taking place on a global level. For instance, Canada's weather forecasts incorporate data gathered by U.S. satellites, which are shared with the entire world-even during times of crisis.

Today, a powerful computer system used by the National Weather Service combines data from radar, satellite images, computer models, high-tech weather balloons, hourly observations from virtually every airport in the country, as well as measurements taken by commercial jets as they fly about, and puts it in the hands of forecasters. "The output of those computers is the basis of every forecast in the United States," says Stephen Corfidi, a lead forecaster with the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. That data combined with old-fashioned human ingenuity (and, as you'll see, occasional gut instinct) is required to analyze the data and make predictions for:

Just how reliable are experts' prognostications? The truth of the matter is today's forecasts -- while more accurate than ever -- can dazzle us with dead-on precision one day and be completely off the mark the next. Despite our mind-boggling advancements in storm prediction, colossal blunders still occur. Here are three recent miscalculations, and the behind-the-scenes explanations for each.

Do It Yourself

You too can forecast the weather.

Reports From the Neighborhood

Do you like to watch the weather? The U.S. National Weather Service uses both "storm spotters" who report severe weather via ham radios or cell phones, and "cooperative observers" who dutifully record the weather every day, and mail in their observations at regular intervals. (Some folks have been mailing it in for over 50 years!) To learn more about the U.S. National Weather Service "storm spotter" program, visit NOAA's Site.