Predicting the Weather: Introduction - Hurricanes - Blizzards - Flash Floods - Tornadoes - Blunders

The Art, Science, and Accident of Predicting the Weather

Do It Yourself

YOU CAN OFTEN one-up your local forecaster with a simple tool: observation. Weather folklore involves "reading" the sky, colors of clouds, and wind patterns. "You don't need a Ph.D. in meteorology to be able to do this," says David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada. "You can thrill your youngsters at how clever you are, just by paying attention." He shares the following examples:

  • The higher the clouds, the finer the weather. If you spot wispy, thin clouds up where jet airplanes fly, expect a spell of pleasant weather.

  • When clouds appear like towers, the Earth is refreshed by frequent showers. When you spy large, cauliflower-like clouds that look like castles in the sky, there is probably lots of "dynamic" weather going on inside. Innocent clouds look like billowy cotton, with no "towers," says Phillips.

  • Smorgasbord of clouds? Expect rain or snow. If you have what amounts to a hodgepodge of all different types of clouds before you, weather is arriving from all different directions. That chaotic sky usually signals rain or snow.

  • Ring around the moon? Rain real soon. A ring around the moon usually indicates an advancing warm front, which means precipitation. Under those conditions, high, thin clouds get lower and thicker as they pass over the moon. Ice crystals are reflected by the moon's light, causing a halo to appear.

  • Rain foretold, long last. Short notice, soon will pass. If you find yourself toting an umbrella around for days "just in case," rain will stick around for several hours when it finally comes. The gray overcast dominating the horizon means a large area is affected. Conversely, if you get caught in a surprise shower, it's likely to be short-lived.

    "You make a deduction, and can be proven right or wrong in a very short time," says Phillips. "If you do that often enough, you will become pretty good at it."

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