Today’s blog will be short and sweet. Do you want cooler temperatures and more rain? It may be coming.
The models at the National Center for Environmental Prediction forecast an El Niño will arrive next month. When one looks at the different agencies around the world, the ones with the models that have been most accurate show an El Niño starting in August.
When the Tropical Pacific heats up and becomes an El Niño, it changes weather around the world. Source: NASA
What does this mean?
Globally, it means that the Tropical Pacific will have a huge area warm up. When the waters are roughly one degree warmer (actually 0.5˚ C for our Canadian readers), they heat the tropical air mass overhead. This changes air pressure and tropical winds. The result changes temperatures and precipitation around the globe.
If an El Niño starts in mid-summer, it typically brings more rain and cooler temperatures to large portions of the nation. Source: US Climate Prediction Center
Here in the US, it typically means normal temperatures east of the Rockies and rain in the central part of the country. Unfortunately, it doesn’t bring much rain to the Southeast in the summer, but it usually means a wet winter.
El Niños also have the pleasant benefit of reducing the number of Atlantic hurricanes. They create high-level winds that usually sheer off the tops of developing tropical storms. They also tend to steer storms away from the Western Gulf, which is good news for Texas beaches.
Remember, each El Niño has its own weird personality. The cooling of the El Niño will be battling the influence of the hot Atlantic waters off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Overall, it looks like August may see better weather. That’s short and sweet.
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Ok I live in south MS just 20 miles north of Hattiesburg. It's been such a hot and humid summer. What does our Fall and Wunter look like? Just looking for some relief!!!
What can we expect as far as cold weather and snow for the Piedmont of NC ?
I heard many times that after we have a double la nina that if we spike into an el nino that the winter will be quite cold in the eastern US. Looking at history when that happens we go to a colder pattern so were going back to the late 1970s. That would be determined by the NAO but even if we do end up with a positive NAO it doesent mean we will have one of the warmest winters on record. Theres been positive NAOs before and none of this has happened. Also el ninos tend to force the jet stream farther south than normal so the south will be cold and wet while ironically the north will be milder and drier. All it takes is a storm system to clash with the cold air and youll get a good winter storm. Think back to 2009-10 when the south was dumped with snow!! That was an el nino winter so we could be looking at another 2009-10. Hoping for a NEGATIVE NAO. I want a winter, not a pathetic winter and I dont want el nino to bring us our warmest winter on record. Will this winter be another 2011-12?
I don't understand the differences between the two as far as how winters are affected. I think we're just seeing winters that are reliably warmer than the last, due to climate change.
We are absolutely ready for fall here in the Cincinnati area! So sick of the heat and humidity. I'm with you, Melissa N.; summer is overrated! Ha. Come on, fall!
Well atleast the east isnt seeing any major heat waves for a while. Were comfortably in the 80s all week so this is beautiful. keep the heat away! Do you think August could finally end the 7 month streak of 2012 with record breaking warmth? I would be even happier if the drought decreased :) July was terrible but what happens in July has nothing to do what happens in August
What a terrible summer! I hate this heat. This is dangerous, I feel for those in the heartland with the temps reaching above 110 degrees! In Indiana we have seen this all summer long with very high heat and humidity. Were dieing over here too with the devestating drought. Go away summer. Enough already :( Im ready for fall
I think you speak for almost everyone -- we're ready for fall.
Thats right Evelyn! We are all ready for fall... An idea of what to name your next blog, "Ready for sweet 'ol Autumn?" who needs a summer? If this is what a summer is then ill be just fine having a year without a summer. Why cant we have that rather than a winter that wasent?
I live in western Arkansas. We are having extreme drought conditions in both AR and OK. Will El Nino bring relief?
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