2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

Another "Above-Normal" Hurricane Season Expected

June 17, 2021
Hurricane Iota Nov2020

Hurricane Iota over the Caribbean in November 2020.

NASA

On the heels of last year’s record-breaking season, another “above-normal” hurricane season is expected for 2021. Will we see 30 storms again? Find out what exactly is predicted for this year’s hurricane season. Plus, see answers to common questions about Earth’s most violent storms!

The 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

The official Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30 (though hurricanes can certainly happen at any time). Forecasts cover the Atlantic Basin—the area encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

Each year, a series of hurricane forecasts are issued from April through August by the noted hurricane experts at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU). Additional forecasts are put out by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

When it comes to hurricanes, there are many indicators related to atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate what to expect. Keep in mind: Whatever the forecast, remember that it only takes one hurricane to make landfall and coastal residents should prepare for every hurricane season.

Below is information from CSU’s hurricane season forecasts so far.

How Many Hurricanes Are Expected This Year?

An above-normal number of storms is expected in 2021, making for a very active season overall:

  • CSU’s latest forecast (published June 3, 2021) predicts a total of 17 named storms (average is 12.1) for the year, of which 8 will become hurricanes (average is 6.4). Of the hurricanes that are expected to occur, 4 will turn into major hurricanes (average is 2.7). Major hurricanes are storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
    • CSU also predicts an “above-normal” chance of major hurricanes making landfall across the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean this year. 

2021 Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity (CSU)

Forecast Parameters

Initial Forecast
(April 2021)

Updated Forecast
(June 2021)

Final Forecast
(August 2021)

Observed Storm Activity
(through June 2)

Median Count
(1981-2010) 
Named Storms 17 17 - 1 12.1
Named Storm Days 80 78.25 - 1.75 59.4
Hurricanes 8 8 - - 6.4
Hurricane Days 35 35 - - 24.2
Major Hurricanes 4 4 - - 2.7
Major Hurricane Days 9 9 - - 6.2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy 150 149 - 1 106
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 160% 158% - 2 116%
Activity Level Above average Above average - -

2021 Hurricane Names

See this year’s list of hurricane names for both the Atlantic Basin and Eastern North-Pacific. Is your name listed? The World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee chooses these names (not The Old Farmer’s Almanac!).

The list actually repeats every six years unless a storm is so severe that the World Meteorological Organization votes to retire that name from future lists. See more about how hurricanes get their names.

More than 60 names have been retired since 1950 because they resultd in significant property damage or deaths. A name can be retired at the request of a country affected by the storm. See the most recent list of retired hurricane names.

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Credit: Petrovich9/Getty Images

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary

The arrival of the 29th named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Theta, officially made the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season a record-breaking one. (Then the record was promptly broken again by Hurricane Iota, bringing the season’s total to 30.) Let’s review what happened in the busiest season in the 169-year history of record-keeping.

What Happened in 2020?

On May 16, 2020—approximately two weeks prior to the official start of the eason—Tropical Storm Arthur became the first named storm of the year. (Starting early is not unusual. This marks the 6th consecutive year that storms have formed prior to June 1.)

Predictions from earlier this year called for an extremely active season and the number of observed storms has well-exceeded those forecasts. By September 18, the hurricane season had already gone through the usual alphabetical list of 21 names, ending with Wilfred. For only the second time since this system has been in use, we moved to the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha (also on the 18th of September) and ending with Iota on November 18.

As of November 2020, there had been 30 named storms:

  • 14 hurricanes (7 major)
  • 15 tropical storms
  • 2 subtropical storms

A record six hurricanes made landfall in the U.S., many bringing severe flooding—especially in Louisana and other Gulf Coast states which got hit by three hurricanes in a row (Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Delta, and Hurricane Zeta),

With the formation of Subtropical Storm Theta on November 10, the 2020 season became the most active season on record, with 29 named storms having formed. Three days later, with the appearance of Hurricane Iota, that record was smashed once again, putting the total for 2020 at 30 named storms.

  • The previous record (28 storms) was set in 2005—a season that included the infamous hurricanes Katrina and Wilma.
  • Prior to that, the season with the most storms was that of 1933, with 20 named storms.

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Activity (CSU)

Forecast Parameters

 Extended Forecast
(April 2020)

Updated Forecast
(July 2020)

Final Forecast
(August 2020)

Observed Storm Activity
(through November 30, 2020)

Median Count
(1981-2010) 
Named Storms 16 20* 24* 30 12.1
Named Storm Days 80 85 100 118 59.4
Hurricanes 8 9 12 14 6.4
Hurricane Days 35 40 45 34.75 24.2
Major Hurricanes 4 4 5 7 2.7
Major Hurricane Days 9 9 11 8.75 6.2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy 150 160 200 180 106
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 160% 170% 215% 225% 116%
Activity Level Above average Well above average Extremely active Extremely active

*Number included already-formed storms Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias.

Facts About Hurricanes

Q. What Is a Hurricane?

A. A hurricane is a tropical storm with winds that have reached a constant speed of at least 74 mph in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico. A hurricane’s winds blow in a large spiral around a relatively calm center of extremely low pressure known as the eye of the storm. Around the rim of the eye, winds may gust to more than 200 mph. The eye of a storm is usually 20 to 30 miles wide and may extend over 400 miles. The entire storm can be up to 340 miles in diameter, dominating the ocean surface and lower atmosphere for thousands of square miles.

Q. How Does a Hurricane Form?

A. Hurricanes only form over warm waters in the tropics (usually above 27°C, or about 81°F). Think of a hurricane like a giant engine. Its fuel is warm, moist air—which rises from from the oceans causing an area of lower pressure below. Then the air from surrounding areas with higher air pressure pushes in to the low pressure area. Then that “new” air becomes warm and moist and rises, too. As the warm air continues to rise, the surrounding air swirls in to take its place. As the warmed, moist air rises and cools off, the water in the air forms clouds. The whole system of clouds and wind spins and grows, fed by the ocean’s heat and water evaporating from the surface. Around their core, winds grow with great velocity, generating violent seas. Moving ashore, they sweep the ocean inward while spawning tornadoes and producing torrential rain and floods.

Storms that form north of the equator spin counterclockwise. Storms south of the equator spin clockwise. This difference is because of Earth’s rotation on its axis.

Q. How Do We Know a Hurricane Is Coming?

A. Now, thanks to satellite technology, no hurricane goes unnoticed. See our article on “Predicting Hurricanes: The Eyes Have It” to learn more.

It also usually takes several days to a week for a tropical storm to grow into a hurricane and there is often plenty of time to take precautionary measures unlike some extreme weather events (such as a tornado).

But if conditions are just right, a powerful major hurricane can develop in just hours. This has been called “rapid intensification” by the National Hurricane Center. When conditions are just perfect, a storm can increase its wind speed 35 mph in 24 hours or less—about two categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which grades hurricane strength from 1 to 5. Rapid intensification, however, is rare, with just one or two Atlantic storms per year undergoing such an acceleration. 

Q. What Is the Cause of Hurricane Damage?

A. Hurricanes actually weaken when they hit land, because they are no longer being “fed” by the energy from the warm ocean waters. When hurricanes move over large landmasses, they can die out quickly because they lose the power of the heat and condensation. However, they often move far inland, dumping many inches of rain and causing lots of wind damage before they die out completely. So it’s not just high winds that cause danger; it’s the torrential rains and storm surges. A hurricane can last for 2 weeks or more over open water and can follow a path across the entire length of the eastern seaboard, coastal areas, and barrier islands. 

Q. Which Areas Are Most Susceptible to Hurricanes?

A. All Atlantic and Gulf coastal areas are subject to hurricanes or tropical storms. Although rarely struck by hurricanes, parts of the Southwest and Pacific Coast suffer heavy rains and floods each year from the remnants of hurricanes spawned off Mexico. Islands such as Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, and Puerto Rico also are subject to hurricanes.

Hurricane Felix (2007)
Hurricane Felix (2007)

Q. Is a Hurricane the Same as a Cyclone? How Is Tropical Weather Classified?

A. A hurricane is actually one of three kinds of tropical storms, or cyclones, that circulate over tropical waters. The circulation is counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:

  • Tropical depression: An organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with a defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.

  • Tropical storm: An organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).

  • Hurricane: An intense tropical weather system with a well-defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher. In the western Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons. Similar storms in the Indian Ocean are called cyclones. Hurricanes are further classified by rank according to how strong their winds are.

Q. How Are Hurricanes Classified and What Are Hurricane Categories?

A. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane’s present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Wind speeds are measured using a 1-minute average. See more about the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

Saffir-Simpson Wind (mph) Hurricane Examples
Category One 74 - 95 Allison (1995), Danny (1997)
Category Two 96 - 110 Bonnie (1998), George (1998), Gustav (2002)
Category Three 111 - 130 Roxane (1995), Fran (1996), Rita (2005)
Category Four 131 - 155 Opal (1995), Iniki (1992), Charley (2004), Katrina (2005)
Category Five 156 + Andrew (1992), Matthew (2016), Irma (2017), Maria (2017)

Q. What Do Hurricane Warnings Mean?

A. A hurricane watch means that hurricane-force winds are possible within 48 hours. A hurricane warning means that hurricane-force winds are likely within 36 hours.

Have you ever experienced a hurricane first hand? Tell us about it in the comments below.

Source: 

Colorado State University, Dept. of Atmospheric Science

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Reader Comments

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Hurricane forecasts

The Editors's picture

The Old Farmer’s Almanac does include hurricane forecasts in the long-range predictions. See the General Weather section in the 2010 Almanac that you are referencing.

"Hurricane, An intense

"Hurricane, An intense tropical weather system with a well-defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher." Shouldn't this read "and minimum sustained winds instead of maximum ...???

"Maximum sustained wind" is a

The Editors's picture

"Maximum sustained wind" is a term used for classifying and measuring hurricanes. It refers to a wind speed that is consistent and relatively long lasting. So, a storm is classified as a hurricane if the maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Thanks for commenting!

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