Woolly Bear Caterpillars and Weather Prediction

Do Woolly Worms Really Predict Winter Weather?

August 28, 2019

Based on the measurements of the distinctive woolly bear caterpillar, you can figure out your weather forecast!

University of Missouri

The woolly bear caterpillar—also called woolly worm or fuzzy worm—has the reputation of being able to forecast the coming winter weather. Whether this is fact or folklore, learn more about this legendary caterpillar and how to “read” the worm!

Here’s the legend: The Woolly Bear caterpillar has 13 distinct segments of either rusty brown or black. The wider the rusty brown sections (or the more brown segments there are), the milder the coming winter will be. The more black there is, the more severe the winter. 

How the Woolly Bear Caterpillar Became “Famous”

In the fall of 1948, Dr. C. H. Curran, curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, took his wife 40 miles north of the city to Bear Mountain State Park to look at woolly bear caterpillars.

Dr. Curran collected as many caterpillars as he could in a day, determined the average number of reddish-brown segments, and forecast the coming winter weather through a reporter friend at The New York Herald Tribune.

Dr. Curran’s experiment, which he continued over the next eight years, attempted to prove scientifically a weather rule of thumb that was as old as the hills around Bear Mountain. The resulting publicity made the woolly worm one of the most recognizable caterpillars in North America (alongside the monarch caterpillar and tomato hornworm).

Woolly Bear Caterpillar. Photo by SillyPuttyEnemies/Wikimedia Commons.
Woolly Bear Caterpillar. Photo by SillyPuttyEnemies/Wikimedia Commons.

What is a Woolly Bear Caterpillar?

The caterpillar Curran studied, the banded woolly bear, is the larval form of Pyrrharctia isabella, the Isabella tiger moth.

  • This medium-size moth, with yellowish-orange and cream-colored wings spotted with black, is common from northern Mexico throughout the United States and across the southern third of Canada.
  • As moths go, the Isabella isn’t much to look at compared with other species, but its immature larva, called the black-ended bear or the woolly bear (and, particularly in the South, woolly worm) is one of the few caterpillars most people can identify.
  • Woolly bears do not actually feel much like wool—they are covered with short, stiff bristles of hair.
  • In field guides, they’re found among the “bristled” species, which include the all-yellow salt marsh caterpillar and several species in the tiger moth family. Not all woolly caterpillars are true ‘woolly bears’ though!
    • If you find an all-black woolly caterpillar, don’t worry—this doesn’t mean that we’re in for a severe, endless winter! It’s just a caterpillar of a different species, and is not used for forecasting. The same is true for all-white woolly caterpillars. 
  • Woolly bears, like other caterpillars, hatch during warm weather from eggs laid by a female moth.
  • Mature woolly bears search for overwintering sites under bark or inside cavities of rocks or logs. (That’s why you see so many of them crossing roads and sidewalks in the fall.)
  • When spring arrives, woolly bears spin fuzzy cocoons and transform inside them into full-grown moths.
  • Typically, the bands at the ends of the caterpillar are black, and the one in the middle is brown or orange, giving the woolly bear its distinctive striped appearance.

Isabella Tiger Moth. Photo by Andy Reago & Chrissy McClarren/Wikimedia Commons.
Isabella Tiger Moth. Photo by Andy Reago & Chrissy McClarren/Wikimedia Commons.

Do Woolly Bear Caterpillars Forecast Winter Weather?

Between 1948 and 1956, Dr. Curran’s average brown-segment counts ranged from 5.3 to 5.6 out of the 13-segment total, meaning that the brown band took up more than a good third of the woolly bear’s body. The corresponding winters were milder than average, and Dr. Curran concluded that the folklore has some merit and might be true.

But Curran was under no scientific illusion: He knew that his data samples were small. Although the experiments legitimized folklore to some, they were simply an excuse for having fun. Curran, his wife, and their group of friends escaped the city to see the foliage each fall, calling themselves The Original Society of the Friends of the Woolly Bear.

Thirty years after the last meeting of Curran’s society, the woolly bear brown-segment counts and winter forecasts were resurrected by the nature museum at Bear Mountain State Park. The annual counts have continued, more or less tongue in cheek, since then.

For the past 10 years, Banner Elk, North Carolina, has held an annual “Woolly Worm Festival” each October, highlighted by a caterpillar race. Retired mayor Charles Von Canon inspects the champion woolly bear and announces his winter forecast. 

If the rusty band is wide, then it will be a mild winter. The more black there is, the more severe the winter. 

Woolly bear caterpillar in defensive posture.
Woolly bear caterpillar in its defensive posture.

Most scientists discount the folklore of woolly bear predictions as just that, folklore. Says Ferguson from his office in Washington, “I’ve never taken the notion very seriously. You’d have to look at an awful lot of caterpillars in one place over a great many years in order to say there’s something to it.”

Mike Peters, an entomologist at the University of Massachusetts, doesn’t disagree, but he says there could, in fact, be a link between winter severity and the brown band of a woolly bear caterpillar. “There’s evidence,” he says, “that the number of brown hairs has to do with the age of the caterpillar—in other words, how late it got going in the spring. The [band] does say something about a heavy winter or an early spring. The only thing is … it’s telling you about the previous year.”

Every year, the wooly worms do indeed look different—and it depends on their region. So, if you come across a local woolly worm, observe the colors of the bands and what they foretell about your winter weather.

What’s the real prediction for this winter? Read our official winter forecast here: 


The 1998 Old Farmer's Almanac


Reader Comments

Leave a Comment

woolly bear

We have started seeing them here in Arkansas about a month ago.

Two black ones no brown on

Two black ones no brown on them at all in southern Ohio !

Woolly worms

I live in south central Ohio and have found all black also!

I saw a black woolly bear

I saw a black woolly bear what does it mean for winter here in pa

Seen two solid black wooly

Seen two solid black wooly worms in Eastern ky

Wolly Bears

I have seen several in our back yard and one in the front just yesterday and each one was a solid black. Northwest Indiana!

With all the dumb things That

With all the dumb things That the government pay for students to research this is a good one to do.

Saw my first for this year...

Saw my first wooly bear for this year today in Mansfield,Ohio. It had a long red/orange band in the middle and the front and end was black. Hope it is a mild winter,not looking forward to driving to the doctors or grocery bath is winter with all this new road work going on around town. I also saw another one under a pine bush curled up like it was dead,didn't try to make it stretch out like its friend was more than happy to do on my hand but it also had a long red/orange band with short black ends.

wooly bear worms

Recently, my husband saw a solid white one. What does that mean?

white woolly worms

I believe the white woolly worm is a different type! They need to be the type pictured above.

Woolly bear catepillar

I've believe this to be true. I've been watching these guys for 50 years and have never known them to fail.

I found a 100% WHITE wooly

I found a 100% WHITE wooly bear in Ohio. No kidding and I took pictures if you are interested.
I wondered if it meant an easy winter OR a frigid and long winter.
Time does tell all.
Scott Wing
September 25, 2015

09-25-15 I have seen 5 white

09-25-15 I have seen 5 white wooly bears in the last 2 weeks. I live in Almond, NY ( southern tier near the PA border) What does the white mean?

Folklore says that a white

The Editors's picture

Folklore says that a white woolly worm is a sign of a snowy winter.

To our knowledge, there is no white form of the banded woollybear (woolly worm), which is the orange and black caterpillar that folklore normally associates with winter weather predictions. However, there are several caterpillar species that can be fuzzy and white or cream, sometimes with spots or tufts of a different color. As one example, the caterpillar of the Virginia Tiger Moth (Spilosoma virginica), called the Yellow Woollybear, can appear all white or all pale yellow or cream. It is in the same family as the banded woollybear, but a different genus. It can be found throughout most of North America.

I found my first 2 WW's this

I found my first 2 WW's this weekend! I am up high in the mountains in southern New Mexico.

Unfortunately, for the third year in a row the WW's are extremely fat and sassy but no orange color!! ;{ Which means no snow................. AGAIN

Near Illinois / Wisconsin

Near Illinois / Wisconsin border, I found my first wooly worm with an extremely narrow black band near the head and the rest was rusty brown. Seems to match mild winter predicted for the Great Lakes region this year. Hoping for another relatively mild winter like last year when the wooly worms were mostly brown.

I found a blonde wooly worm

I found a blonde wooly worm on my door, never seen one before

I found a white one today, I

I found a white one today, I live in Virginia and I've never seen a white one before.

I've been tracking the woolly

I've been tracking the woolly bear caterpillars for over 23 years. In all those years, the prediction was wrong twice. One of those errors being last years prediction.. I do believe in woolly bears, I do believe.

I live in southwestern

I live in southwestern Pennsylvania I just seen a all red or light in color woolly bear but it looked young so don't know if it will get black on the ends before the summer is over, does anyone know?

Found a white wooley in ohio

Found a white wooley in ohio today

What did yours look like?

What did yours look like? Just seen our first one today! Ours was COMPLETELY orange. In past several yrs it's been thick black bands w little orange, remember last winter how bad it was here, WW said awful winter. We are eastern central Ohio.

Found a big fat thick wolly

Found a big fat thick wolly bear worm on my porch today. What does that gonna mean for Kentucky's winter?

Found a woolly bear

Found a woolly bear caterpillar on brick of house tody
It was all a rust color with no black at all.
Ontario Canada, Very mild winter coming if coloring & Almanac is correct.

Ah now I see what these

Ah now I see what these things are .

They're crawling all over the place here at the horse ranch .

Recently moved out to the corn fields from a major city and never seen so much wildlife all at once , all right in front of ya .

This past fall was the wooly invasion .

Didn't know exactly what they were so I basically left them alone .

I do know there will be plenty of them moths this coming spring and summer .

That is alright , the reason why I moved out here is to get away from the corruption , greed , drugs and crime and that is just in the police department .

I found one on my old

I found one on my old christmas tree I was like "yayay" and then I got it and put it in a box so yaaaaa......... anyways it was black and in the middle it was redish orangeish brownish all mixed together can anyone tell me what kind of caterpillar it is and if its poisonious

Seen an all black wooly bear

Seen an all black wooly bear caterpillar 3 inches long an really bushy seen another by my house again another black one this is in Allentown, PA.

when did you find a all black

when did you find a all black wooly bear

I just found a black and

I just found a black and brown wooly bear catapillar We are having that strong winter storm on v day here in southern maryland. Should i bring this guy insince we r havingbelow zero. tonight and the next week. Wont he freeze? What do i do?????