An Early Winter 2016 Weather Prediction

Weather Forecasts for Spring 2016, Summer 2016, Winter 2016

By Michael Steinberg, Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologist
May 3, 2016
Summer Picnic

Now that winter is over, it’s time to look to the year ahead to see our most likely weather over the next 12 months. See what’s predicted for spring 2015 through winter 2016.

The key to our upcoming weather is that Solar Cycle 24 is now well into its declining phase after reaching double peaks in late 2011 and early 2014. Despite having two maxima, this cycle is the smallest in more than 100 years.

General 2016 Weather Prediction

As solar activity continues to decline from these low peaks toward its expected minima in early 2019, we expect temperatures in much of the nation to be hot this spring and summer. With the strong El Niño of this past winter transitioning to a La Niña in the coming summer, we are looking at an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with the winter of 2016–17 much colder than this past winter in most locations.

Spring 2016 Weather Prediction

The western third of the nation will have a warm and mostly dry spring, which will increase the danger of wildfires as we move toward summer. In the nation’s eastern two-thirds, the north will be ideal for outdoor activities, but above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall will raise concerns about drought in some areas; the south will be cooler and rainier than normal, with above-normal tornado activity.

Summer 2016 Weather Prediction

The summer will bring above-normal temperatures to most of the nation, although portions of the south will have below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall.

Hurricane season will be more active than it was last year, with threats along the Atlantic and Gulf regions. The best chance for a major hurricane strike will be in early July in Florida and from late August to mid-September along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts.

An Early Winter 2016 Weather Prediction

Winter temperatures will be much colder than last winter—but still above normal—in much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The only exceptions will be in a swath from North Dakota to Maine, which will have below-normal temperatures. Most of the Pacific states will have below-normal temperatures, with above-normal temperatures in the Intermountain region and Desert Southwest. Snowfall will be above normal from southern New England and western New York southwestward through the Appalachians; from eastern Minnesota eastward to the UP (Upper Peninsula) of Michigan and southward to St. Louis, Missouri; and from central North Dakota westward to the Pacific coast. We expect below-normal snowfall in most other places that normally receive snow.

Precipitation will be below normal across most of the southern two-thirds of the nation and above normal in the north, with the primary exceptions being above-normal rainfall in northern California, southern Oregon, portions of the Midwest, and Florida.


Reader Comments

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Weather in my area

I Live In Hicksville NY.
What's To Be Expected
Snow And Winter Weather
For My Area 2016-2017

Weather in My Area

What is the snow prediction for the Triangle area in NC

what does the weather look

what does the weather look like for northwest Iowa in the next few months? Are we seeing snow earlier in the season or late?

What kind of winter are we

What kind of winter are we expecting in WV?

Everyone who is asking for

The Editors's picture

Everyone who is asking for weather forecasts:
The 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac is now available! You can find the 2017 edition in retail stores where magazines and books are sold.  Also, you get a copy online at or in our General Store here:   Note there is a digital copy for instant access and no shipping.

And if you ONLY want the long-range weather piece, find a digital copy here:

Note: Carefully look at the product. The long-range weather is based on REGIONS (not towns) and is based on months and weekly trends (not to the day). These predictions are made over a year in advance. Thank you for your support of our little yellow book which comes out every year and supports this Web site!

Winter 2016 & 2017

I live in central Wa
What is the winter forecast for winter of 2016 & 2017?

I am in rhode island so the

I am in rhode island so the winter looks harsh? We are a part of southern n.e I was hoping it wouldn't be SO I could get a second job and travel with no real issues since it would be a farther drive.

weather forecast winter 2016-2017

The Editors's picture

The winter temperatures in your region should actually be slightly warmer than average in December and January. Snowfall should be near-average.  Find more details in The 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac.

Winter weather

I was wondering what the snow fall will be like for this upcoming winter in Montgomery county, especially in Baltimore, Bethesda, Rockville areas in MD

Winter forecast 2016-2017

The Editors's picture

Winter temperatures should be above normal, but snowfall should be near normal in your area. See the full long-range forecast in the 2017 edition.


Are we going to have a giant snow storm in mid-Febuary? I live in WV near Charleston and was wondering what the snow fall will be like for this upcoming winter in WV

Winter 2016-17

What should Charlotte NC expect this upcoming winter? More or less snow?

Winter Outlook

I live in Reedville, VA. (Northern Neck) I was wondering how much snow and when will it start for this area. Thanks.


The Editors's picture

We are predicting above normal temps and below normal snowfall in your area. Flurries may appear in late January and there is a slight risk of heavy snow in mid-February.

We hope you get the weather you want!

Snowfall in Yosemite Nat'l Park- Winter 2016-17

I've searched for this information but can't seem to find anything specific to this location. We're trying to make plans for a Yosemite hike and stay. It requires access to Glacier Point Rd. The road opens only when they can sufficiently and safely clear it for visitors. In the past 5 years the openings have varied from as early as March 28 to as late as May 3rd. I know that Mother Nature ultimately calls the shots but what do you guys predict for weather conditions in March - May 2017 in Yosemite??

Weather Prediction for Weekend of Dec.2-4 in Princess Anne, MD c

We are having our Annual Christmas in Princess Anne 12/2-4) with parade and historic home tour and I am just wondering what the chance of Sunny( I would even take dry) seasonal temps will be.

long-range predictions

The Editors's picture

Long-range predictions aren’t this exact, however, the weather prediction for the first week of December for the Atlantic Corridor is “sunny, warm” so we hope you’ll be in luck!


Hi, I read the almanac almost daily and was wondering when the first snow would start? How much snow is going to be in my area? Im around Dulles Airport, around 20 miles west of Washington DC. Im VERY eager to know and the information will be highly regarded, thank you!

First snow...

The Editors's picture

Hi, Abraham, We are predicting, with traditional 80% accuracy, rain and snow conditions in mid- and late November. There may be flurries in December, esp mid-month. The snowiest periods are forecast to be mid– to late January and early to mid-February. Look out for a snowstorm in mid-Feb. Thank you for your enthusiasm. We hope you get the weather you want!

50th anniversary

We are having a large 50th anniversary party on nov.12th, 2016 in uniontown pa. We have alot coning from other states what will the weather be like?


What will temperatures be on thanksgiving for Newport News Virginia?


We are having an outdoor wedding October 15, 2016 and would like to know if you have a weather prediction for this date. We live in Newport News, Va

Sounds good to us!

The Editors's picture

Hi, Donna: Looks like mild with the possibility of a few showers–which, if they come, according to folklore will wash away any past or future troubles of the couple. And remember, a knot that gets wet is hard to untie! Good luck!


What does the weather look like for October 15, 2016. We are having an outdoor wedding.

weather prediction for the pacific north west

can you please tell me what the weather will be for 2016-17 winter wise, I live about 60 miles north of seattle Washington

I live in far NW Illinois. We

I live in far NW Illinois. We've had a very heavy acorn crop this year, the heaviest in several years. The squirrels are working overtime getting them gathered up. The local weather forecasts are predicting above average temps but my snowblower is tuned, new tires and chains...just in case.

Weather n Pacific NW

I live in Portland Oregon wondering what our winter will look like-I have to work outside. Thanks

Early Winter

I was born, raised, and have lived in the Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN. suburbs and surrounding suburbs since then, 1962. Since 1978, I have suffered from Ragweed allergies in the fall, until the first freeze. The one thing that I have noticed related to that fact, is that the earlier my ragweed allergy starts (this year, the last week of July, the 24th to be specific), the earlier the winter snow fall is. I have been telling all my family and friends to beware of early snow, or at least cold temperatures. Since I purchased a new vehicle this summer, I am actually excited to receive those first few flakes this year, as I want to test the performance of a highly anticipated "traction control" on my car. Thanks for your yearly predictions and all the work you do as a team. You have my respect and regard to others. In Minnesota, we talk about the weather all the time, and the farmers almanac, especially at this time of year, is often a topic of that discussion.

Minne talk

The Editors's picture

Thanks,  Jane! This is delightful to hear! We appreciate your enthusiasm for the Almanac‚ and we hope that everybody in Minnesota gets the weather they want! All the best—



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