The US and Canada are in for a real battle this autumn.
Think of it as a battle of the heavyweights. In the north corner of the ring, it’s the Arctic Oscillation. Its punishing blows can knock you out cold. In the west corner lurks the El Niño. Don’t let the name, which means “little boy”, fool you. He can come roaring out with a cold punch to the South and hot and heavy in the North.
The El Niño is weak but may pack a warm punch later. SOURCE: NASA Earth Observatory
Oh, and just to make the battle even more interesting – in the east corner is the hot Atlantic. This battler has been the past champion, dominating the ring, baking the US with scorching hot temperatures. The champion is not going to give up easily.
On Saturday, September 22, the opening bell rang and autumn starts. The battle to see which forces shape this fall’s weather will begin. In short, the hot dry summer is finally dragging to a close and a stormier fall is about to begin.
Let’s pretend that there is a ringside announcer. He is sizing up Round 1 – the opening week of autumn.
- The Champion, the hot Atlantic still controls the ring. The US is still warm and dry, but it looks like he is getting tired. Some cooler temperatures are entering the South.
- The cold Arctic Oscillation is entering the ring. Those winds that trap polar air north are weakening and some cooler air is surging into the Great Lakes and the Midwest. Already we are seeing snowflakes over the Great Lakes. The AO won’t do much this round, but he is shaping up to be a real contender. This winter will be colder than last winter.
Last year had a warm positive Arctic Oscillation, but this year a negative AO may bring in the cold. SOURCE: NOAA
- The El Niño has not officially begun. (Scientists wait a number of weeks for temperatures in the tropical Pacific to remain warmer than 0.9˚F before they officially declare an El Niño has begun.) We are seeing only a few small blows from the “little boy”. He’s bringing some rain to Texas and the Southern Plains. Expect him to start growing stronger and peaking in November and December.
Expect an epic battle and a very messy fall. The warm waters of the two oceans will clash with cold winds from the north. It’s hard to know which weather factor will triumph. However, if the US gets some rain and cooler temperatures, we will all be the winners.
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I live in NE Florida. What kind of winter can we expect for 2013?
I live in georgia and I love snow alot.do u think that we will get snow this year.
Im still debating whether I should get the heater on sale or not. It would be a good idea to winterize my house but its going to be in the 70s next week! and im thinking "well, it may stay like this through November-December" im not wasting my money on a record warm winter. When will the colder air start move in again in the mid atlantic? Im hoping soon! i dont want it to stay unusually warm..
This better be a tougher winter. I did not almost slide down the backyard with piles of acorns 2 inches deep for no reason!! They said the worst of the cold is gone in KY. Now thats making me think we will be crazy above normal again. Please.. i want more coldd! Thats what made me happy. Im waiting on the November forecast from NOAA. Crossing my fingers
last "winter" was quite weird in North Carolina. I could go outside on a January afternoon and go to the park and walk my 2 dogs (they're spoiled) 60 degrees and sunshine, my oh my! NC had more of a Florida winter but the lack of winter last year has really hurt many things- way too many fleas, ticks, and pests. I love some beautiful spring weather too but can the 60 degree weather hold off until March and April this time? My doggies say "ohh please no fleas" flea spray is far too expensive for me to buy in winter when they should be frozen off! Should the NAO still phase negative at times this winter atleast? Without winter, spring wouldnt be so beautiful. When its 70 degrees in February it ruins everything
Brenda- Im with you. If i see tulips in Feb im gonna be at the doctors office as well
We had that October snowstorm on Halloween then following that November came in and it was unusually warm. We had our 2nd warmest November. December brought no change then everybody still said "no dont worry, this winter is still young. It will turn colder" sure enough, no it didnt. Winter NEVER came and I had tulips blooming in February & my dogwoods were peaking in March. I remember that March weekend like it was yesterday. 86 degrees and people were soaking up some sun by the pool and i was just lost. Never in my life ive seen swimmers in mid-March. In the Mid Atlantic beaches it was as if it was May & I saw a headline that said "Welcome to May, in March" What caused this nonsense? and will I see tulips in February again? Is so, im going to take myself to the doctor to see if its just me haha!
I think you will save on that doctor bill.
Hi Evelyn,I think you covered the whole US except the S.W.part of Tennessee about two hours east of Memphis. Can you forcast any snow? It hardley ever snows here. We just get ice. I WANT SNOW. Thank you, DE
Your area is a great unknown, very vulnerable to small changes of the Arctic Oscillation. You may have to visit a ski resort to get that snow.
Ive been hearing that guidance continues to show a return to more cold and snowy conditions this year in the northeast. Is this true? so we'll have a real winter this year?
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