Hot + Cold = Blizzard

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So far, fall 2016 has been toasty. Of course, there have been occasional storms, but overall, October and November were unusually warm in most of the US. 

Most of the United States has been warmer than average this fall. Source: NOAA

This is hardly surprising. The Atlantic Ocean has been very warm this year, especially over the past few months. The Pacific Ocean waters off the West Coast are extremely hot. Look at one of the more recent satellite maps of ocean water temperatures.  Literally, the US is in a lot of hot water.

North America is surrounded by hot water. Source: NOAA

The prevailing winds have carried this hot, moist air inland. This has heated up most of the Central and Eastern US. Since warm air holds more moisture, this meant that we had enough summer rainfall for good crops and enough fall warmth for comfort. Unfortunately for the South, it has also meant that the warm air has held the moisture as humidity and there have been fewer rains, causing over 60% of the Southeast to experience dry or drought weather. 

Hot air holds more moisture. Just look at the air over a geyser. Source: Recreation.gov

Potential for Storms

Unfortunately, as the mid-November storms that hit the Midwest and Northeast showed, all this warm air with high humidity has the potential to create some real storms when it is hit by a cold front.

The result is fierce, high-energy, fast-moving storms. Within 24 hours temperatures can drop from above-normal to frigid as the storm’s wind chill factor makes the weather feel colder than it really is. Then, when the storm has passed, unusually warm air replaces it.

Unusually warm air means fiercer storms when a cold front hits.

The Atlantic Gulf Stream shows signs of continuing to pour hot water along the Gulf and East Coast for quite a while. When damp, warm air from the Gulf and Atlantic meets a cold front from the north, a fierce storm breaks out. Repeat. The result, schizophrenic weather. 

Conditions are right for a crazy winter! At least it won’t be as snowy as 1966 when this picture was taken. Source: Wikipedia

So prepare for warmth, cold, storms, drought, and general weather insanity. Wheeeee!