The Cooling Effect of the Sun

How Solar Radiation Affects Earth's Climate

September 22, 2017
Sunrise Frost

As Earth continues to warm, lower solar radiation may ease the heat’s impact—temporarily. Let’s take a look at some emerging weather patterns.

Our Warming Earth

July 2017 had very close to the same average temperature across Earth as did July 2016, which was the hottest month ever recorded. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the average global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2017 was 0.83 degree C (1.49 degrees F) above the 20th-century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F), only 0.05 degree C (0.09 degree F) behind July 2016.

You can see on the map from NASA, below, that nearly every place on Earth was warmer than normal in July, including all of the Americas. NASA also has an interesting animation showing the temperature departures from the normal mean over the period from January 1880 through July 2017. (See animated map here.)

July 2017 Temperatures by NASA.
Credit: NASA

Nine of the 10 warmest Julys on record have occurred since 2005, with July 1998 the only one before the 21st century. July 2017 also marks the 41st consecutive July and the 391st consecutive month (that’s 32 years and 7 months) in which the average global temperature has been above the 20th-century average.

In my view, this is extremely strong evidence that Earth is warmer than it was in the 20th century. And, because solar activity (the driver of our long range forecasts) suggests that temperatures in recent years should have been relatively cool, this represents strong evidence that there is some other factor causing warming—which would be the increase in greenhouse gases caused by human activities.

What Will Happen Next?

I do expect that solar activity over the next 15 to perhaps 50 years will remain low. And if I am correct, this will keep the Earth’s temperatures cooler than they would otherwise be—although still continuing a general year-to-year warming trend. Then, once solar activity returns to near normal levels, temperatures would jump significantly higher—perhaps on the order of 1 to 2 degrees F.

Although based on the current political climate it seems unlikely that we will have taken the actions needed to deal with the increased temperatures on a national level, states like California, New York, and Florida have already started to enact plans to deal with rising seas and other effects of the rising temperatures.

One very important thing to keep in mind is that with technological advances accelerating at an exponential rate, solutions that would be too complex and costly now will be much more effective in the future. Thus I am hopeful that we will find a way to deal with any changes in climate that will enable the continuing advancement of humanity.

Winter river

What to Watch for this Winter

As solar activity continues to decline toward its minimum in early 2019, temperatures will be much colder than last winter—but still above normal—from Maine southward to most of Florida and westward through the Great Lakes, Midwest, Heartland, and Northern Plains.

With last winter’s weak La Niña most likely to be replaced by a weak El Niño, cold air masses will have difficulty making any prolonged inroads in the northern Plains, Great Lakes, or northeastern states. But they will be able to slide into the Intermountain region, making below-normal temperatures the rule from the Gulf States westward to California and from the Intermountain region westward to the Pacific Northwest.

The winter of 2017–2018 will feature above-normal snowfall in northern and central New England, from the Tennessee Valley westward to New Mexico, and in the central Great Lakes, central Plains, and Intermountain regions.

See more of the Almanac’s Winter 2017–2018 Forecast.
Order your copy of the new 2018 Almanac here.

Reader Comments

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Climate Change

Climate Change is inevitable...You may lose all credibility with me.Take me back a lot further then you have posted..maybe I will listen ...again

The end of the ice age

If there was no human activity causing greenhouse gases, how did the ice age end? If the theory is that it was due to volcanic activity, why are we now not frying due to subsequent volcanic activity? Why are "scientists" no longer concerned about the ozone?

A letter to President Barack H. Obama from John L. Casey

President Barack H. Obama The White House 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW Washington, D.C. 20500
April 28, 2014
SUBJECT: Request to Prepare the USA for Dangerous Cold Climate.
Dear Mr. President,
Good morning.
This letter is sent to you as a heartfelt request that you take immediate action to ensure that the United States of America is fully prepared for the historic, potentially dangerous, new cold climate that has begun.
This request is backed up by research over the past decades into the causes of climate change along with the real status of the Earth’s climate. Key findings of that research are provided here in a partial list of what is either widely accepted or can be easily validated:
1. The past period of global warming, a natural phenomenon produced primarily by the Sun, has ended. We have now had over seventeen years without any effective growth in global atmospheric temperatures in the troposphere. Ironically, this means that for the majority of the time the international community has been dealing with global warming, there wasn’t any! It is therefore important to accept that global warming has ended. There is no global warming!
2. The Earth is actually cooling and has been for years.The world’s oceans have been cooling for eleven years as has the atmosphere for most of that time. Of the twenty-four climate parameters monitored by the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC) and recorded in its quarterly Global Climate Status Report (GCSR), eighteen of them show global cooling as the dominant trend. The remaining six are expected to convert to ‘cooling’ status within the next five years. Sea levels have already started to drop where some ocean areas are getting colder. The SSRC has predicted a global sea level reduction lasting thirty years to begin at any time between this year and the 2020’s. If these trends change, the SSRC will be the first to report it. However, based on actual global temperatures and the most reliable climate models, there is only one conclusion to be made about the Earth’s current climate status – a new cold climate has arrived! 3. If this new cold epoch proceeds as past episodes (roughly 200 and 400 years ago), we should expect to see substantial global crop damage, social and political upheaval, and loss of life. These ill-effects are expected to start soon and last at least three decades. We have little time left to prepare. Respected Russian scientists have even gone so far as to say a new “Little Ice Age” will start this year! This means the advancing cold climate is a serious threat to our people! 4. The new cold climate is being brought to the Earth by a repeating 206 year cycle of the Sun. I independently discovered this cycle and announced it in 2007. Though many other researchers have discovered this cycle or predicted a coming cold climate, they have been ignored. The cold phase of this two-century-long cycle is produced by the Sun making dramatic reductions in the energy by which it warms the planet. This Sun-driven cold period is called a “solar hibernation,” by the SSRC. It is important to note that NASA, the US Air Force, and the National Solar Observatory have confirmed the on-going decline in solar activity. This has happened as I predicted. It is also necessary to know that this natural, repeating, and ominous change in the Sun is unstoppable!
5. Research related to these solar hibernations, also shows they occur concurrently with the most destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the latter of which can add dramatically to an already colder climate.
In addition, I believe African Americans, other minorities, and the poor will suffer the most because of the new cold era and your climate policies. This assertion is supported by the fact that a large percentage of these citizens are largely dependent on the US government for food, which we will start to run short of as the cold starts to damage crops. This means as a result of your climate policies, they may be both unprepared and unable to get food routinely during the worst years of the coming cold climate. Further, your climate policies include making energy costs “skyrocket” to quote you. These energy cost increases will hit minorities and the poor the most.
In summary, the lives of many Americans may be in jeopardy as a consequence of the arrival of the new cold climate, your continued support for the flawed, unreliable manmade global warming theory, and your lack of action to prepare the United States for the next climate change.
Regardless of your stated belief in “accelerating” global warming, (something that does not exist), as President of the United States, you still remain fully responsible and accountable for the welfare of our approximately 317 million citizens.
You therefore deserve to receive this genuine warning about the new cold climate if nothing else, for the record.
John L. Casey President

False Logic

"greenhouse gases caused by human activities" - Interesting how you lay 100% of the blame on human activity without any mention of other factors that have changed the Earth's climate for billions of years.

There is no man-made global warming, it is a hoax.

We have less than 40 years of satellite based temperature readings that can be trusted. Land based stations suffer from the expanding urban heat island effect.

Global warming

global warming is in the Bible. Isaiah 30:26 Right under the falling of twin towers This tells the global warming is coming .That is Bible truth.

Global Warming Isaiah 30:26

This is DEFINITELY NOT to start a biblical argument, as I believe that the Bible is intended to have different meanings to different people at different times in their lifes/journey's. Not to say that Jerry is wrong, but that when I read Isaiah chapter 30, My take-away of the meaning here is not specific to Global Warming. Part of this though is from my belief that we are in the End Times yes, but unlike most that I have spoke with, I believe that the End Times is a period of hundreds of years. I DON'T believe that I will see the end days, Maybe my children, or even my Grandchildren. But, I have heard virtually every generation since at least the beginning of the 1900s say that "They" will see the end of days and point to all the signs. Thus, in my limited knowledge and limited life here on this planet, I have come to the conclusion that it is soon, but that I'm not naive enough to believe I will see it. And the lord said that like a thief in the night, we will not know the day nor the time of his return(It's only because I don't believe it will happen in my life that I think it's possible that it would).

All of that to say, I believe that Isaiah 30:26, in context with the entire chapter of Isaiah chapter 30, Is referencing the end of days. My personal belief(not to say anyone else's is wrong) is that the Signs of the Times will be a period of hundreds of years(I believe we are in that period) but the actual end will be fast and COMPLETELY UNMISTAKABLE for anything at all as questionable as "Global Warming". I take Isaiah 30:26 as a reference to the End of Nights pre-empting the End of Days.

........... But that's just my personal perspective. I LOVE ALL THE FEEDBACK HERE! It's great to see that I'm not the only one who feels, pretty much everything commented on before me.

Climate change

Humans have abused this planet earth for way to long,we have been feeling the effects&it's only going to get worse
Our president needs to wake up. Peace

Climate stupidity

You don't appear to take into account that there were very few places around the world that had accurate temperature measuring instruments. Nor that the global temperatures are cyclical. Nor that it has been reported that many official temperatures were registered in places that were designed to provide inaccurate high temperatures.


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