With winter behind us, let’s look ahead to see our most likely weather over the rest of spring and the coming summer.
The key to our upcoming weather is that Solar Cycle 24 is now well into its declining phase after reaching double peaks in late 2011 and early 2014. Despite having two maxima, this cycle is the smallest in more than 100 years; solar activity will continue to decline from these low peaks toward its expected minima in early 2019. With the current neutral ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions trending toward a weak El Niño by autumn, we expect a normal to above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
Spring Weather Recap
We have predicted spring to be warmer than normal in most of the country, with the exception of the Northeast and the Desert Southwest, where we forecast cooler-than-normal temperatures. As for spring precipitation, we predicted below-normal rainfall from the Upper Midwest southward to the Deep South and in the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain, and Lower Lakes regions. Precipitation is forecast to be above normal in most other areas.
Summer 2017 Weather Predictions
Summer temperatures will be above normal in the Pacific and Intermountain states, but below normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be below normal in much of the Ohio Valley, Deep South, Upper Midwest, Heartland, and High Plains and in Oklahoma and northern Texas. It will be near or above normal elsewhere.
Hurricane season will be more active along the Atlantic seaboard than along the Gulf coast. The best chances for a major hurricane strike are in mid-June from Florida to New England and late August and early September from Florida to North Carolina.