What Does The Old Farmer's Almanac Say About November?
Ready for your November 2020 weather forecast? Michael Steinberg, Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologist, takes a look at what’s in store for November’s holidays—including Election Day, Veterans Day, Canadian Remebrance Day, Pickle Day (?!), and Thanksgiving.
November 2020 Predictions
Overall, November will bring milder-than-normal temperatures from central New England southward through Georgia; from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley westward to Iowa; and in Texas, Oklahoma, the Pacific Northwest, and most of Hawaii. Near- or below-normal temperatures will be recorded elsewhere across the United States.
Most of eastern Canada will have above-normal temperatures, on average, with below-normal temperatures in most of the western provinces. Precipitation will be near or below normal in most of the U.S. and above normal in most of Canada.
Let’s highlight the weather on some important dates this month:
Tuesday, November 3, is U.S. Election Day. The Almanac is predicting rainy weather in the eastern two-thirds of the nation, the Pacific Northwest, and Hawaii, and even snow showers in Alaska. Interestingly, historical studies have shown that turnout for Democrats has dropped more than for Republicans during rainy weather. Such research shows that the results of the presidential elections of 1960 and 2000 might have been different had it not been for rain in a few key states. But since 2020 is such an unusual year with many ballots are being returned by mail, weather may not matter in this election and turnout will likely be high despite rainy weather.
Wednesday, November 11 is U.S. Veterans Day and Canadian Remembrance Day. The weather on this day in most states will be ideal for whatever parades and outdoor gatherings may be permitted and prudent, with sunshine and mild temperatures predominant. The primary exception to this will be showers across the western states. Sprinkles will also dampen festivities for folks in Canada, although temperatures will be mild in all but the western provinces.
Saturday, November 14 is National Pickle Day in the U.S. Most of the nation will have appropriately sour weather on that day, with rainy periods in the eastern half of the nation and on the Pacific coast, as well as snowy periods from the Heartland into the Intermountain region. Sometimes I find having to write on cue cumbersome, but then again, there’s never a dill moment.
Thursday, November 26 is U.S. Thanksgiving and this holiday will feature sunshine in most areas, thankfully! Exceptions will be New England, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley, where there will be snow showers, and from Texas northward to Iowa, from Idaho westward to the Pacific Ocean, and in Hawaii, where rainy periods will persist.
The Upcoming Winter
As for the upcoming winter, we will be entering Solar Cycle 25, which is expected to bring very low solar activity. Although low levels of solar activity have historically been associated with cooler temperatures, on average, across Earth, we believe that recent warming trends will dominate in the eastern and northern parts of the United States in the coming winter, with below-normal average temperatures limited to the western portion of the nation. Temperatures will average above normal in most of Canada, except for Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, where below-normal readings are expected.
As we move toward the winter, watch for any changes in the ENSO pattern (the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is based on temperatures in the Pacific Ocean), where we expect a weak La Niña to develop. If La Niña were to be stronger, colder temperatures would likely prevail across the northern Plains and southern Ontario. If instead we have more neutral conditions or an El Niño, California would experience heavier rainfall while the Canadian Prairies would have milder temperatures.
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