2017 U.S. Weather Forecast—Janice Stillman | Almanac.com

2017 U.S. Weather Forecast—Janice Stillman

What’s in store for winter 2016–2017? Editor Janice Stillman gives some highlights. Order your copy of The 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac—now available in our online store and in retail stores across North America!


Colleen (not verified)

5 years 7 months ago

I live in southern Oregon, specifically the Klamath Falls area. I have a couple of questions:
1. When looking at the Almanac as to which region we live in, it is difficult to tell if I am in the Intermountain Region 13 or the Pacific Northwest Region 15. Can you give me the correct region?
2. This area around Klamath Falls, OR seems to be in a "black hole" when it comes to forecasting. We don't really fit into any forecast models. Can you give me a heads up for the coming winter?

Hi, Colleen, You are one of thousands—maybe millions—of Almanac users who live “on the edge”—on the “border” of a weather forecast region. Here’s a little help on how we make the region areas and a few things to consider:

• the “shapes” of the Almanac’s forecast regions reflect the climatological movement of weather systems; that is, the general trend: “climatological” refers to long-term conditions and “weather systems” are massive influencers (think jet stream, El Niño/La Niña, and others)

• consider prevailing winds; across the U.S., these are westerlies (come from the west)

• consider your local topography; your area is west of the Rockies, so you are not likely to experience the Polar Vortex that usually pours down from Canada on the Rockies’ eastern flank (stay with me here; just giving an example). But Klamath Falls is—so far as I can tell here https://www.topoquest.com/map.php?lat=42.18750&lon=-121.81250&datum=nad27&zoom=32 in somewhat of a gorge—or, as you say, Black Hole. That circumstance might protect you (the areas, that is) from some conditions but funnel others right at you (say, if winds blew from the north). But aren’t there other mountains east of you, too, between you and the Rockies? Their presence could influence your weather as well.

• So while you may be—and appear to be—on the edge of the Pacific Northwest Region 15, you might experience condition of another region. It depends on how the wind blows.

We generally advise that folks “on the edge” of two or more regions read all related forecasts and consider the general long-term conditions (there’s that “climatological” implication again). Keep an eye on the day to day weather and compare that with the Almanac forecast over a period.

Finally, keep in mind that Mother Nature has a way of breaking all the rules, of surprising any/all of us with what we least expect—and predict. The Almanac forecasts are traditionally 80 percent accurate—sometimes more, sometimes less. So use it as a guide.

We hope this helps.

I guess I've been doing it the right way! I just read both region's forecasts and throw in a little local topo knowledge and call it a day.
Thank you for the excellent answer! It explained it perfectly!

venice liston (not verified)

5 years 8 months ago

So no rain for Southern Calif ? Very cold though ? What about northern Calif will they get rain ?

Hi, Venice, Northern California (from around Eureka northward) will be cooler and rainier than normal. Points south of that will see above-normal rainfall in the early part of the winter—but make no mistake: the winter season as a whole will experience below-normal precipitation.Overall, temperatures in all of California will be slightly cooler than normal. In the southern areas, the spring and summer are expected to bring normal rainfall as well. So the drought is expected to continue.

Click on the forecast page fore specific information about various parts of California: http://www.almanac.com/content/long-range-forecast-2017

We hope this helps.