Less Severe Winter Weather Expected in 2018–2019

2018–2019 Winter Weather Forecast From The Old Farmer's Almanac

August 31, 2018

For those who dread extreme wintry weather, we have some good news! For the 2018–2019 winter, The Old Farmer’s Almanac—North America’s oldest, most popular almanac—says the winter temperatures will be less severe in most of the United States this year.

Of course, it’s still wintry weather! However, the winter temperatures will be above average and the snowfall will be below average. This less frigid winter is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering.

Exceptions include the Southwest (be prepared for increased cold and snow) and greater snowfall in the nation’s midsection and most of the Intermountain region.

In Canada, however, many regions will experience a winter that will be colder and snowier than what is average.  There are exceptions to the rule: Pacific Canada and the southern two-thirds of Ontario will see normal temperatures (remember, it’s winter, so it will still be cold!), while northern Atlantic Canada’s temperatures will be above normal (again, still winter, still cold).

All of Canada can bank on above-average snowfall throughout the season. Now that’s good news for skiers and snowboarders!

How do we predict long-range weather? The Old Farmer’s Almanac—founded in 1792 when George Washington was president—uses a unique, age-old formula that’s traditionally 80% accurate and trusted by generations of loyal readers. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions: solar science, climatology, and meteorology. Here’s more about how we predict the weather

Look Inside the Almanac

Be in the know! Find a full year of 2018–2019 weather predictions so that you may plan ahead—whether you’re a gardener, star gazer, or an everyday weather watcher. Order your print or (instant) digital copy of The 2019 Old Farmer’s Almanac from the Almanac store or from Amazon.com.

Did you know? The Almanac is much much more than a weather prognosticator. Take a look inside our little yellow book here!


The 2019 Almanac will be available in your local retail store on September 10 (if not before)! Browse the full list of retail stores that carry The Old Farmer’s Almanac.


Reader Comments

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Winter Prediction in New England

What?! Compare the maps for US and Canada.

United States map predicts Warm and Wet Winter for New England.
Canada map prediction for Cold and Snowy Winter for Canada JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH NEW ENGLAND.

I have never seen a weather front that decides to stop itself at the international border. Whatever weather is going on in southern Quebec is certainly also happening NH, VT, ME. So much for the predictions.

You are WRONG!!!

Snowfall will be near normal and it will not be a warm winter in most of the region! I want you to change your winter expectations right now! Winter is so boring when it is warm and has not enough snow with too much rain! It will be cold with snow! We are expecting that from December 24 to 26 there will be snow!

Around 1/3 of the region will

Around 1/3 of the region will be cold/snowy
Around 1/8 of the region will be near normal/ snowy
Around 1/3 will be mild and wet/dry

Nature takes care of its own

I live in the Sarnia area and noticed that the walnut trees have basically no nuts this year.
Last year the amount of walnuts was crazy.
Theres an old saying thats says "nature takes care of its own". Meaning the trees produce enuf "fruit" to supply nature with what it needs to survive the winter.
I cant find anything related to that saying on Google.

predictions and information

I would just like to say that I find your information helpful and enjoyable.
Some have left negative comments about your weather predictions, but you are not God..
In the last several years I have seen meteorologists reports are hit or miss..subject to change.
For years gone by the Almanac was very accurate so you obviously know your technique.
I will hope for a mild winter as predicted, and enjoy your gardening and food preservation articles.
Thank you.


My wife and I have been following your "predictions" for over 20 yrs. Thanks for your work and material. Those who are disappointed need to read and watch more clearly what you are saying for each areaof the country. Thanks again.

20 years on...

The Editors's picture

Thanks for your enthusiasm, Dennis. We hope that you and your wife get the weather you want!

Weather Predictions

Frankly, I've given up on trying to remember how to decode the convoluted weather predictions in the Almanac. Unfortunately, that's enough for me not to buy it.

"Decoding" the forecasts

The Editors's picture

We don’t want to see you go! We’d rather help you and others: The forecasts are by the month, with predictions for a few days at a time (not individual/single days). The temp given each month is the predicted average for the month; the precip is the average predicted for the month. The info in parentheses is how much the predicted temp and the precip predictions are above or below normal. Hope this helps!

In as much as i enjoy reading

you predictions, I take them as just that........ predictions. Some may think of them as a forecast of weather, I see them as long range predictions. Anyway hope your right about this winter !!

Hope for this winter?

The Editors's picture

We have heaps of hope, too—and some reasonable science and data to hang those hopes on.  Perhaps you can think of the forecasts as trends…big picture strokes of what to expect. We appreciate that you consider them and took the time to write. Here’s hoping that you get the weather you want!

I read in the alamac the

I read in the alamac the first week of September was going to be cooler, you folks got it wrong it has been very hot here in Pittsburgh temperature has been in the low 90 to mid 90 and very humidity
What happened to your forecast
Thank you for reading this text.

Sept chill?

The Editors's picture

Hi, Bonnie, Our prediction for September 1 to 13 is for “a few showers, cool.”  Sure, it’s warm (even HOT) right now, but it’s still summer. With that in mind, take a look here: https://www.almanac.com/weather/forecast/PA/Pittsburgh

Sure as predicted, it’s going to be cool as we go into the weekend and continuing into next week. Thanks for taking the time to send this note.

Wrong Every Year

You all are literally wrong every single year. I can never take these seriously

literally, yes

The Editors's picture

But only occasionally.

Climate change

Does the almanac take into consideration climate change and rising and warming seas?Melting ice caps? What is the official status on these scientific changes from the Almanac?.

Oscillations etc.

The Editors's picture

Hi, Vincent, Yes, we do take the warming oceans and other oscillations into consideration when making our forecasts. In the 2019 edition, on page 97, opposite to and explaining the color weather maps, we note, per usual the weak La Nina being replaced by a weak El Nino, as well as the status of/prediction for the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The Arctic also gets close scrutiny. There are numerous oscillations around the globe. Here’s another, the MJO, Madden Julian: https://www.almanac.com/blog/weather/weather-whisperers/herds-hurricanes...

The “official status” is that each of these systems influences the weather and we consider that in making out forecasts. We can not change or affect these weather systems; we just watch them, consider the effects in prior years, study their compatibility with a variety of other factors looking forward, and make our predictions.

Thanks for asking!



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