Will it snow on Christmas Day 2021? Check our special White Christmas weather forecast for the U.S. and Canada to see if there will be snow Christmas morning. Also, find out the places that have the best odds of a White Christmas!
White Christmas Forecast (United States)
According to our famous long-range predictions, snow is in the forecast for Christmas week in a large part of the U.S. this year.
In most regions, periods of snow showers or flurries are expected to occur in the days leading up to Christmas, which means that many folks will be able to enjoy a White Christmas! Looming rain threatens to make it a wash down the West Coast and across the South, however.
Below are the weather highlights by region. Just click on your region to see more details!
Christmas! ‘Tis the season for kindling the fire of hospitality in the hall, the genial flame of charity in the heart. –Washington Irving, American writer (1783-1859)
What Places Have a White Christmas?
If you love the idea of a White Christmas, find out where snow is most likely! Based on NOAA historical weather data (based on 30-year data sets), here’s are the odds. Any surprises?
Northeast and Great Lakes
Northern Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Michigan, and Wisconsin can practically guarantee a blanket of snow on Christmas Day, since snow begins falling earlier in the month and these northern areas have freezing temperature to avoid snow melt. In Minneapolis, it’s an 80% chance. Over northern Michigan and especially the Upper Peninsula, as well as northern Minnesota, 3 out of every 4 years on average feature a white Christmas. Even greater odds exist over northern North Dakota.
In the White Mountains of northern New Hampshire, it’s a 97% odds; northern Vermont has a 75 to 95% chance.
In central and southern New England, there’s a 50-50% shot shot in a random year; Boston’s odds are only 20%.
Around upstate New York and western New England, it’s just over a 50-50 shot. Cleveland’s odds are 1 in 3 and Chicago only 2 in 5 for Christmas Day.
Moving west towards Montana and Idaho, the odds of a White Christmas are quite good but also very consistent; it may be cold but some areas are also dry with the precipitation needed for snow. Missoula, Montana has a very high 98% chance. Idaho City, near Boise, is also high with a 94% chance. Salt Lake City is only 50-50 odds.
Colorado also varies greatly depending on the proximity of the mountains.. East of Denver is only 40% and Boulder is 47% yet southwest of Boulder, it’s 77%! The same goes for southern Rockies; elevation and can make a difference; even Flagstaff, Arizona, has a 44% chance of snow.
Low Chances in Rest of the Country
Don’t expect high odds in the Plains, Mid-Atlantic, the South, Texas-Oklahoma, Missouri, or western and central Tennessee. We’re talking very low chances (perhaps 20%). Washington D.C. has only 6% odds.
So if you want a White Christmas or, conversely, want to escape snow on Christmas Day, consider the historical odds! Our only surprise is how low the odds are for most of the country.
Pick up a copy of our famous little yellow book, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, for 12 months of long-range forecasts! Plus, The Old Farmer’s Almanacisthe perfect stocking stuffer to star the new year right!
So, are you dreaming of a white Christmas? Let us know in the comments!