Winter Weather Forecast 2016-2017

Get a Special Sneak Peek at Winter Weather!

winter-weather-forecast-2016-2017

Share: 

Rate this Article: 

Average: 3.7 (85 votes)

Michael Steinberg, The Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologist, is giving a sneak peek at winter’s weather forecast! Find out how the winter of 2016–17 will be for you!

As surely as summer turns to autumn, winter will follow on the day of the Winter Solstice. Here’s what to expect:

Overall Winter Weather Forecast 2016–2017

Solar Cycle 24, the smallest in more than 100 years, is well into its declining phase after reaching double peaks in late 2011 and early 2014. As solar activity continues to decline from these low peaks toward a minimum in early 2019, we expect temperatures in much of the nation to be much colder than last winter, but still above normal.

solar-cycles-winter-weather-forecast.gif

Graph: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

The winter of 2016–17 will feature above-normal snowfall in the northernmost states, along the spine of the Appalachians, and in northern Illinois, but below-normal snowfall in other areas.

With last winter’s strong El Niño being replaced by a moderate La Niña this winter, cold air masses will be able to build in Canada and move southward into the United States. Other important factors in the coming weather patterns include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in a continued warm phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a cold phase, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the early stages of its warm cycle. Oscillations are linked ocean–atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years.

United States Winter Weather Forecast 2016–2017

us-winter-weather-forecast.jpg

Across the United States (see map below), winter temperatures will be much colder than last winter—but still above normal—in much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The only exceptions will be in a swath from North Dakota to the Great Lakes and Maine, which will have below-normal temperatures. Most of the Pacific states will have below-normal temperatures, with above-normal temperatures in the Intermountain region and Desert Southwest.

Snowfall will be above normal from southern New England and western New York southwestward through the Appalachians; from eastern Minnesota eastward to the UP (Upper Peninsula) of Michigan and southward to St. Louis, Missouri; and from central North Dakota westward to the Pacific coast. Expect below-normal snowfall in most other places that normally receive snow.

Precipitation will be below normal across most of the southern two-thirds of the nation and above normal in the north, with the primary exceptions being above-normal rainfall in northern California, southern Oregon, the western Lower Lakes region, and Florida. With rainfall below normal in most of California, the drought there will continue.

Canada Winter Weather Forecast 2016–2017

canada-winter-weather-forecast.jpg

Most of Canada (see map below) will have below-normal temperatures this winter, although Quebec and eastern Nunavut will have above-normal temperatures.

Snowfall will be greater than normal in most areas, the exceptions being Manitoba, portions of Saskatchewan, and the northern part of the nation, where snowfall will generally be below normal.

Detailed forecasts for specific regions of the United States and Canada appear in The 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac and The 2017 Old Farmer’s Almanac Canadian Edition (each available in our online store and wherever books and magazines are sold in the United States and Canada, respectively).

Read some great folklore about winter weather. Plus, learn how to predict your winter weather with a woolly bear caterpillar.

Are you excited about these wintery predictions for your region? Let us know below!

Michael Steinberg

Comments

Add new comment

Not excited in Canada

We had such a mild weather last winter (that felt more spring like) and such a wet horrible summer that we're really not looking forward to a freezing cold, above average snow over here! I think I speak in the name of most people in Calgary, Alberta! Haha! Oh well, hoping it's as mild freezing cold as possible to keep enjoying outdoor activities and the Rocky Mountains!

Hi, I'm moving to Tulsa, OK

Hi, I'm moving to Tulsa, OK at the end of September. Is it possible to let me know what this winter will be like? Thanks

Tulsa weather in late Sept

Hi, Renee, Tulsa is in the northern part of region 11, which includes almost all of Texas and almost all of Oklahoma. In that area, over the last 10 days or so of September, we are forecasting warm temps with some thunderstorms (these are localized, and do not tend ot cover broad areas, so it is not likely to be raining everywhere all the time). We hope this helps.

Predictions not always correct....

I think it's somewhat funny how in the past three years the weather for southeast Texas was predicted to be one way and it was totally the opposite! I've lived here for over 33 years and while I've counted on the almanac to predict winter, well, the past few years it hasn't quite hit on accuracy! Predicted cold, we wore short sleeved shirts and jeans with sandals! I guess if I want cold weather I need to move much, much further north!
I'll need to get rid of my lightweight winter clothes that have been in storage for the past three years and just keep my summer ones out year round!
Still love the Almanac though!

Texas temps

Ya know, Penny, you’re right! We looked back to a few recent years and our temp forecasts and real temps went in different directions. Every year Mother Nature did something different than current and historic models would have suggested…but we’ll keep at it and hope that this year we hit it.

It’s hard to tell in your comment if you prefer cold weather, so let’s just say, we hope you get the weather you want!

And we want to THANK YOU kindly for your loyalty to and enthusiasm for this Almanac no matter what the weather. We never have made it for 225 years without you and folks like you. Cheers to you and yours!

Ohio

Why is Ohio always split? We live in central Ohio and I can never tell what region we are in sitting in Columbus area.

Splitsville, Ohio

Hi, Dinah, Thanks for asking. Your comment—why is Ohio always split—sent us back to the archives to look more closely at the weather maps of the past five or so years. And you are right! The color of the map changes over or near Columbus is all but one of the most recent years (meaning the weather changes). Essentially, it has to do with 1) the climatological movement of weather systems, and 2) the ways the wind blows. We advise folks in areas that are on a border or a weather map color or one of our weather region to pay attention to the adjacent region forecasts as well.

This year, for example, a strong northerly wind could carry the “mild wet” conditions solidly south; or the prevailing westerlies, and a surge from the south, could bring “mild, dry” conditions.

We hope this helps. Even a little. And we hope you get the weather you want.

 

weather geek

Don't Know why but weather changes really interest me.

On my scooter it has been

On my scooter it has been (metaphorically speaking) a coons age ago since I roden it I pulled it out really dirty water&rust came out immediately bees and flies within seconds came to it. REALLY NASTY

Forecast Winter

Hope you are right! would love to have a SNOWY winter this winter, any winter!

Winter weather

I hope to gawd it's a mild winter. I love snow, but on Long Island it tends to become grimy ice after a few days. We've gotten clobbered with heavy snows in recent winters, and the temperatures have been really bitter up here on the North Shore of the Island (except for last year). I would relish a milder one again.

A bit disappointed. I wanted

A bit disappointed. I wanted a raging winter for a change but it looks like Kansas will be in a mild spot. I always enjoy the forecasts and almanac!

Weather

Sir , I must say that you're a gifted meteorologist! Keep up the splendid work!

Your winter forecast

HAAAAAAHAAAAA! As if you can predict the weather any better than the government meteorologists or even private ones. What are you? God?

Comment to Liz

Well, that was nasty. Can you do better?

Amazing isn't it? The

Amazing isn't it? The attitude of some people

not sure if cumulus clouds or

not sure if cumulus clouds or chemulus clouds

I get your comment, Mark.....

I get your comment, Mark.........hope everyone else can read "Between the Lines"

Free Almanac Newsletters

Weather, sky watch, gardening, recipes, good deals, and everyday advice!