2020-2021 Long Range Weather Forecast for Southern Ontario

Hi, Padh: Thank you so much for taking the time to make this comment as well as the one below. We really appreciate it when folks like you ask us questions about just about anything! To answer (we hope!) your concerns: Our forecasts use our 228-year-old method that over time has proven (and continues) to be about 80% accurate. The predictions are made up to a year-and-a-half ahead of time; these November forecasts were arrived at this past January. It is definitely true that we do miss things (about 1 in 5 times), but it is important to remember that our Southern Ontario Region 3 weather region is a huge area stretching from the suburbs of Toronto west to the Manitoba border and north almost to Metagama. When we predict weather for the region, we are doing so for the average of the entire area; even when we say “east” or “west,” we are talking about that part of the region in general. So it may well be the case—and in fact is so fairly often—that while in one prediction locale we are right, in another we are wrong. In general, though, the odds are that we will be correct for where we predict. As far as the next “snow” in Toronto goes, it could be at any time, but we see the next big snowstorm as arriving in mid-December. With regard to changing our forecasts, we would never do that. In fact, sometimes we do have that opportunity, particularly for late summer and early fall when we can get a better handle on the near-term weather before our next year’s forecasts made months before are actually published. We never update them not because of stubbornness, but because 228 years of history have taught us to stick with what has worked so well, and in the few times when we have made last-minute tweaks, we have lived to regret them. Once again, thank you very much for taking the time to write!