2022–2023 Winter Weather Forecast
A Tale of Two Winters!
The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac—America’s best-selling almanac—has hit the shelves and is now available at retail stores everywhere, from sea to shining sea. With our official release, we also unveil the 2022–2023 winter weather map and General Winter Forecast Report for the United States. (See our Canadian forecast here.)
A Tale of Two Winters!
Will the 2022-2023 winter forecast divide the country? (We’re talking about weather, of course!) The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac is telling “A Tale of Two Winters” because—as the U.S. map above shows—the weather this winter will split the country in two. Your region will be very cold or mild. Which will it be?
Will it be the best of winters or the absolute worst?
“Depending on where you live, this will be the best of winters or memorable for all the wrong reasons,” reports Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac. “One half of the country will deal with bone-chilling cold and loads of snow, while the other half may feel like winter never really arrives.”
For 231 years, The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac has been helping readers to prepare for the season ahead with its 80 percent–accurate weather forecasts. For farmers, truckers, vacationers, wedding planners, skiers and snow bunnies, economists, and snow shovelers, here’s the general weather summary …
The 2022-2023 General Winter Forecast
What’s shaping the weather? Recent Solar Cycle 24 had the lowest level of solar activity in more than 100 years. We are now early in Cycle 25, which is expected to peak around July 2025 and also bring diminished activity, which historically has meant cooler temperatures, on average, across Earth.
We believe that most of the U.S. will be colder than normal this winter, although summer will be mostly warmer than usual. In addition to a neutral to perhaps weak El Niño, important weather influences will include a continued warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a neutral to positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Oscillations are linked ocean–atmosphere patterns that can have long-term effects on the weather.
Below is the general forecast for the U.S. regions. For the Canadian winter map, go here.
A Tale of Wet & Mild?
For most of the western half of the United States, The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a coming winter that’s “Wet & Mild”—one with lots of (mostly) rain and temperatures that trend upward by as much as several degrees above normal. Specifically:
- Winter temperatures will be milder than normal across eastern Maine, from the Rockies to the West Coast, and across Alaska and Hawaii.
- Precipitation will be above normal from Maine to southeastern Virginia, in Florida, and from the lower Great Lakes into Missouri.
This is in stark contrast to what’s coming for the rest of the country.
Or, A Tale of Shivery & Snowy?
Winter for much of the Midwest and along the East Coast is best described as “Shivery & Snowy.” The eastern half of the U.S. should brace for potentially record-breaking cold to define the season. This frigid forecast extends to the Deep South and Texas, which could see the mercury diving as much as 8°F below normal! Specifically:
- Winter temperatures will be colder than normal across much of the country between the East Coast and Rockies.
- Snowfall will be greater than normal from central New England through northern North Carolina, from the Lower Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains, from the northern Plains into eastern Washington, and across the higher terrain of the southern Rockies and California.
- Freezing temperatures will also bring above-average snow totals to most areas in the eastern U.S. that typically experience snowfall.
See regional forecast highlights below. And to get the complete weather predictions covering every week for 12 months of the year, order your copy of The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Regional Winter Predictions
See all 18 U.S. weather maps and regional highlights below.
Region 1: Northeast
Winter temperatures will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south. The coldest periods will be in early and late January and late February. Precipitation will be above normal. Snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-December and the first half of January.
Region 2: Atlantic Corridor
Winter temperatures will be below normal, while precipitation and snowfall will be above normal. The coldest periods will be in early December, early and late January, and most of February. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-January, late January, and late February.
Region 3: Appalachians
Winter will be colder than normal, with near-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be early December, late January, and mid- to late February. The snowiest periods will be in early and late January and in February in the south.
Region 4: Southeast
Winter temperatures will be below normal, with the coldest periods in early December, early and late January, and mid-February. Precipitation will be below normal. Snowfall will be above normal in the east and below normal in the west, with the best chances for snow in early and late January and mid-February.
Region 5: Florida
Winter will be colder and rainier than normal (1° below avg. in December, 3° below avg. in January, 4° below avg. in February, 1° below avg. in March) with the coldest temperatures in early and late January and mid-February.
Region 6: Lower Lakes
Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest temperatures in early December and late January to mid-February. Both precipitation and snowfall will be above normal. The snowiest periods will be in late November to early December and early to mid-January.
Region 7: Ohio Valley
Winter will be colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation but above-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will occur in early and mid-December, early and late January, and much of February, with the snowiest periods throughout January and in late February and early March.
Region 8: Deep South
Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early December and early and late January. Precipitation will be below normal, with abovenormal snowfall in the north. The best chances for snow in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February.
Region 9: Upper Midwest
Winter temperatures will be below normal, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early and late January, and mid-February. Precipitation and snowfall will be below normal in the east and above normal in the west. The snowiest periods will be in late November, early and late December, and early and late March.
Region 10: Heartland
Winter will be colder than normal, on average, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early to mid-January, and mid- to late February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above average in the east and below average in the west. The snowiest periods will be in late November, early to mid-January, and February.
Region 11: Texas-Oklahoma
Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early to mid-January and early to mid-February. Precipitation will be below average, but snowfall will be above average in the north, with the best chances for snow in mid- to late January and early February.
Region 12: High Plains
Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late November, early December, early and late January, and early and late February. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal in the north and below normal in the south. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, mid- to late January, and early February.
Region 13: Intermountain
Winter will be warmer than normal, with the coldest periods in mid-November and early February. Precipitation will be above normal, with above-average snowfall in the far north and far south. The snowiest periods will be in mid- November, late December, early to mid-January, and early February.
Region 14: Desert Southwest
Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be in late November, normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid- January. Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February.
Region 15: Pacific Northwest
Winter temperatures will be milder than normal, with slightly below-normal precipitation and snowfall. The coldest periods will be in mid-November and early and late December. The snowiest period will be in mid-November.
Region 16: Pacific Southwest
Winter will be warmer and wetter than normal, with above-normal mountain snows. The coldest temperatures will occur in mid-November, mid-January, and early February. The stormiest periods will be in mid- to late December, early and late January, early and late February, and late March.
Region 17: Alaska
Winter temperatures will be much milder than normal, with the coldest periods in mid- to late November, early December, and late January. Precipitation and snowfall will be below normal, on average, with the snowiest periods in early November, mid-December, late January, and early February.
Region 18: Hawaii
Winter temperatures will be warmer than normal, with the coolest periods in mid-November and mid- to late February. Rainfall will be below normal, with the stormiest periods in early and late November and early March.
Much More Than Weather Forecasts
Did You Know: The heart of The Old Farmer’s Almanac isn’t about weather. An almanac is a “calendar of the heavens,” a time capsule of the year, and an essential reference for every day, all year long! This little yellow book is packed with great tips, wit, and age-old wisdom. For example, got bug bites? We recommend witch hazel (yes, that bottle you’ve had in your house for years!). It works and stops the itch.
What’s inside the 2023 Almanac? See more highlights below …
DISPATCHES from family farms: stories from a diverse group of independent farmers taking big risks that pay off personally, in their communities, and for the environment.
GARDENING TIPS for perfect perennials and chiles for every palate. Also: gardening trends for the coming year (a sneak peek: 54% of young adults would rather go to a garden center than a nightclub).
FESTIVE FOOD: delicious dishes (and family traditions) from a Ukrainian Christmas and sweet and savory winners from the Almanac’s banana recipe contest.
PRACTICAL LIFE ADVICE: a straightforward method for organizing keepsakes, plus some sometimes surprising home remedies to handle hay fever.
STORIES AS ONLY THE OLD FARMER’S ALMANAC CAN TELL THEM: a legendary timekeeper, an ancient grain that’s not just for the birds, a step-by-step guide to hatching chickens, analysis of how happy “happy as a clam” really is, and much, much more!
Where to Buy The Old Farmer’s Almanac
The 2023 Old Farmer’s Almanac is now on shelves! See our store locator: Almanac.com/WhereToBuy.
Or you can buy the 2023 Almanac online:
- Classic Paperback and Hardcover editions: Available from the Almanac online store.
- Softcover bookstore edition: Available on Amazon.com
- Digital edition: No shipping, instant access. Buy the 2023 digital edition.
Looking for the Canadian edition?
- Classic Paperback (Canadian edition): Order on Amazon.ca or find in local stores: Almanac.com/Wheretobuy.
- Digital edition: Buy the 2023 digital Canadian edition.
How Does the Almanac Predict the Weather?
By tradition, The Old Farmer’s Almanac employs three scientific disciplines to make long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.
Our forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies. Read more about how we predict the weather.
How Accurate Are The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s Forecasts?
We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly, that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena. However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost always close to our traditional claim of 80% accuracy.
In the new 2023 Almanac, we publish a full analysis of last year’s long-range predictions. Our overall accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of precipitation departure was far higher than our average, but our accuracy rate for temperature was far below average. This makes our total accuracy rate 72.2%. Learn more about how accurately we predict the weather.