It’s been a hot one so far! Will the heat continue into August? Check out our forecast to see the Summer 2021 temperature and precipitation outlook for your area, compliments of Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologist Michael Steinberg.
Summer officially began with the summer solstice on Sunday, June 20! We’ve spent our time enjoying outdoor activities, seeing family and friends (finally), and generally having a better summer than last year. The only question is: will the weather continue to cooperate?
Summer Weather Forecast 2021
Summer to Bring the Heat Again
Last summer brought record-breaking heat and drought to some areas of the United States. Are we up for a repeat performance this year? For a significant part of the country, we’re expecting summer temperatures to be hotter than normal once again, including in the Atlantic Corridor and eastern Great Lakes; from the Upper Midwest south to the southern Intermountain region; and into the Pacific Northwest, coastal California, and Alaska.
Elsewhere, we expect to see summer temperatures at near or below normal ranges—good news for those who suffered through the extreme heat of last year! We’re predicting near or below-normal temps from the Northeast into the Ohio Valley and south to the Gulf Coast, as well as westward across the southern border.
Rainfall will be greater than normal in the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes; from the western Ohio Valley south- and westward to the Gulf of Mexico; from Washington southward through California; and in northern Alaska and western Hawaii. It will be near or below normal elsewhere.
→ To see the extended forecast for your region, check out our free 60-day Long Range Forecasts!
Across Canada, summer temperatures will be cooler than normal in Quebec and British Columbia and hotter than normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be abundant, with above-normal precipitation across nearly all of Canada.
Another Active Hurricane Season
As you may know, June 1 marks the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs until November 30. We expect near- or above-normal hurricane activity this year, but it’s likely that 2021 will fall far short of the intensity of the 2020 hurricane season, which brought a record-smashing 30 named storms.
The best chance for a major hurricane strike will be from South Carolina to New England in early to mid-August, with tropical storm threats in Florida in mid-May and from Florida to southern New England in early to mid-September.
→ How many hurricanes are expected this year? See the full 2021 hurricane forecast here.
August Forecast: Will the Heat Continue?
August temperatures will be hotter than normal, on average, from Colorado westward to portions of California and in New England, the Upper Midwest, High Plains, Alaska, Canadian Maritimes and Prairies, and Northwest Territories and near or below normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be above normal from Idaho westward to the Pacific and in New England, Florida, the Tennessee Valley, and most of Canada and and near or below normal elsewhere.
Weather for August vacations will be generally favorable, although beach temperatures will mostly be on the cool side. The eastern seaboard faces a hurricane threat in early to mid-August.
On August 1, Colorado Day, folks there will celebrate their entry as the 38th state in the Union with temperatures that will be warm, but not hot, and thunderstorms scattered about the state.
August 16 is Bennington Battle Day for our friends in Vermont, where the weather will be perfect for outdoor celebrations, with abundant sunshine and warm temperatures.
That same day, August 16, is also Discovery Day in the “Larger Than Life” Yukon, celebrating the discovery of gold in 1896. The weather there will be precious, with nuggets of golden sunshine and cool temperatures.
On August 19—National Aviation Day in the United States—temperatures will soar to above-normal levels everywhere but in Florida and the Pacific states. Scattered thunderstorms will reduce visibility as they soar into the sky in most of the nation.
The full Moon on August 22 is known as the “Sturgeon Moon” because the giant sturgeon of the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain were most readily caught during this part of summer. Whatever you call the day, the weather will be ideal for Sun and Moon watching from New England to the Upper Midwest, from the Intermountain region to the Pacific Coast, and from the Canadian Prairies north and westward. Thunderstorms will be scattered about elsewhere across the United States and Canada.
August 26 is celebrated as Women’s Equality Day across the United States. Perhaps not surprisingly, most of the nation will have equally nice weather, with sunshine and comfortable temperatures, although thunderstorms will be scattered about from New York through Georgia and in the rest of the Deep South, Upper Midwest, High Plains, and Desert Southwest. Rainy periods will prevail in much of Alaska and Hawaii.
July Forecast: Midsummer Respite?
July temperatures will be lower than normal, on average, in most of the U.S. and Canada, although Florida, the Upper Midwest, the High Plains, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, the Canadian Maritimes and Prairies, and Yukon and the Northwest Territories will be hotter than normal. Rainfall will be below normal in most areas, although above normal in Maine, from the Gulf coast westward to California, from the Rockies to the Pacific, and in Kauai, the Canadian Maritimes, and British Columbia.
On July 1, Canada Day, showers will be scattered across all of the nation except for the Northwest Territories. Temperatures will be on the warm side in most areas, although cooler temps will prevail from Prairies eastward through Ontario.
Three days later comes U.S. Independence Day on July 4, when natural fireworks will light up the skies in many areas as scattered thunderstorms pop up everywhere except in the Southeast, Heartland, High Plains, California, and Alaska.
Many regions will also see thunderstorms on July 24, the National Day of the Cowboy in the U.S., but that weekend won’t be a total washout, as National Parents’ Day on July 25 will find most places dry with moderate temperatures and only the occasional threat of a thunder boom.
June Forecast: A Warm Start
Temperatures in June will be hotter than normal from the Northeast into the Appalachians, in the Upper Midwest, and in the eastern half of Canada, but near or below normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be above normal in the Northeast and Appalachians; from Florida westward across the Deep South; in much of Texas and the Pacific Southwest; and in the western three-fourths of Canada.
On June 5, World Environment Day, the outdoor environment will be good in most of the United States, with sunshine the rule. Bring your umbrella to any outdoor activities in Canada, though, as most areas will have at least a couple of showers.
Expect showers and cool temperatures to reign on June 11, King Kamehameha Day in Hawaii.
Between Flag Day (June 14) and Juneteenth (June 19) showers and thunderstorms will be scattered about most of the United States and Canada, although sunshine will prevail in the Intermountain region and Pacific states.
June 20 marks Father’s Day, as well as the summer solstice, the start of astronomical summer. Expect warm temperatures in most of the United States, with cool temperatures prevailing across most of Canada.
Expect showers and cool temperatures as the rule across Canada on June 21, National Indigenous Peoples Day, but don’t let this dampen the celebrations.