Bob Smerbeck & Brian Thompson, Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologists
October 31, 2022
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It’s a vote for mixed weather as we head into the U.S. midterm elections coming up on November 8. See our Fall 2022 Weather Forecast—now updated with your November highlights! See what weather’s in store this coming month.
This is a general summary of our long-range predictions for the 2022 fall season for the U.S. and Canada—updated each month for September, October, and November.
Autumn temperatures in the United States will be warmer than normal across much of the country, except for cooler than normal over northern New England, the Southeast, and the Pacific Northwest.
Autumn rainfall will be above normal over the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, across the Deep South, from the Lower Lakes through the Upper Midwest and Heartland, and across the Pacific Northwest and southern California; it will be near or below normal elsewhere.
In Canada, autumn temperatures will be warmer than normal from southern Ontario through the Prairies and across the Northwest Territories and the Yukon and near to below normal elsewhere.
Autumn rainfall will be above normal from the southern Maritimes through southern Ontario, across the Prairies and southern British Columbia, and over the Northwest Territories and below average elsewhere.
September 2022 Forecast
Throughout the month of September, temperatures will mainly be near or below normal across the northern half of the U.S. and above normal in the southern half, Alaska, and Hawaii. Near- or above-normal temperatures will be found across southern Ontario, Yukon, and the Northwest Territories, with below-normal temps elsewhere. Precipitation is expected to be below normal across Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, and Hawaii and near or above normal elsewhere, while near- or above-normal precipitation is expected across all of Canada.
October 2022 Forecast
October temperatures will be cooler than normal in Florida, the Southeast, and the Deep South but warmer than normal elsewhere in the United States. Precipitation will be above average from Maine to Georgia and westward through the Appalachians, with a tropical storm and heavy rain possible across the Deep South late in the month. It will be drier than normal in most other locations.
In Canada, October temperatures will be warmer than normal across much of the country. Precipitation will be above normal in southern Quebec, southern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories and generally below normal in most other areas. A hurricane may impact Atlantic Canada around the middle of the month.
November 2022 Forecast
Overall, November temperatures will generally be near or below average across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, although above-average temperatures are expected across New England and the southern Plains. Temperatures will also be above average for the month across much of the western U.S. and Hawaii. Farther north, below-average temperatures are anticipated from Alaska through much of western and central Canada. A warmer-than-average month is likely from Quebec into the Maritimes.
Above-average precipitation is likely in November across much of the northern U.S., where the storm track will be more active throughout much of the month. On the flip side, we expect near- to below-average precipitation across the southern U.S. In Canada, we’re forecasting above-average precipitation across much of the country, although November does look to be drier toward the Maritimes.
For the U.S. midterm elections coming up on Election Day (November 8), we are looking at some good voting weather across much of the East, with a mix of sun and clouds and an autumn chill in the air. Farther west, temps will be mild, with some showers from the Great Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and into the Deep South. Across the West, the weather will be mild, with quite a bit of sunshine from the Rockies to the West Coast—although some storminess could mean a wet trip to the polls across the Pacific Northwest. It will be a cold Election Day across Alaska, with some snow showers around. Hawaii will be mild with a few showers on hand. Read our full Election Day forecast!
November is also a month filled with football. For the CFL’s Grey Cup championship at Mosaic Stadium in Regina, Saskatchewan, on November 20, we expect great football weather for the game: chilly with clouds and some sunshine, along with some sprinkles or flurries.
As we head into the Thanksgiving holiday across the U.S., we’re expecting some rain to slow travel at times across much of the eastern half of the nation. See our full Thanksgiving forecast!
What About Winter 2022?
Looking ahead to the winter forecast, we’re monitoring several different factors. Of note, the La Niña that has been in place for the past 2 years has been expected to become more neutral as the year goes on. However, the latest indications are that the current La Niña could persist all the way through the upcoming winter. La Niña conditions rarely last for three consecutive winters, so this is a setup that we don’t often see.
The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) remains in a warm phase, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is currently in a negative, or cool phase. Oscillations are linked ocean–atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years.
We’re also monitoring the Sun, as sunspot activity has dramatically increased during the past 6 months and now is at its highest level since 2015. The relationship between increased solar activity and the future phase of the stratospheric winds near the Equator (known as the QBO) could lead to the polar vortex becoming displaced from the North Pole. This would open the door for some cold shots across the eastern United States and Canada this winter.