Fall Weather Forecast 2021: Cooler Conditions Fall Into Place
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Updated to include the November 2021 forecast
October 28, 2021
Though we predicted a warmer-than-normal start to fall 2021, November begins to make the shift to cooler-than-normal temperatures, on average across most of the United States and Canada. Here’s a sneak peek to our long-range forecast.
This is a general summary of our long-range predictions for the 2021 fall season for the U.S. and Canada, with monthly highlights for September, October, and November.
For most of the fall season, temperatures across the United States will be warmer than normal in the Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions and Alaska and below normal elsewhere.
Precipitation will be above normal in the Northeast and Delmarva; from the eastern Great Lakes southwestward to the Tennessee Valley; and in southern Texas, the southern and central High Plains, the western Desert Southwest, the Pacific Southwest, and southern Alaska. They will be near or below normal elsewhere.
In Canada, autumn temperatures will be below normal in Quebec and Ontario and near or above normal elsewhere. Precipitation will be above normal from Atlantic Canada westward into eastern Ontario and below normal from central Ontario westward to the Pacific.
November Forecast: A Cornucopia of Cooler Conditions
While most of fall will have warmer-than-normal temperatures, a shift will begin in mid-November in many areas. Yes, we’ll start the descent into winter. So make you have that winter parka ready this year!
Overall, November temperatures will be cooler than normal, on average, across most of the United States and Canada, although the Pacific states and provinces will generally feature above-normal temperatures. Precipitation will be above normal in the Gulf Coast states and the Canadian Prairies and Northwest Territories, and generally below normal elsewhere.
Expect to see the shift to average temperatures in many regions by mid-November when there could be several freezes, and then a shift to below-average temperatures by late November.
Here are some highlights for holidays and calendar days:
On November 2, Election Day in the United States, chilly temperatures will be the rule in the East, with mild to warm temps arriving across the central and western states. Snow showers will dot the skies in Alaska and the northeast quarter of the nation, while Hawaii will see rainy periods. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather will prevail.
November 4 is Will Rogers Day in Oklahoma, where folks will see some wet snow with cold temperatures.
Daylight Savings Time ends at 2:00 A.M. on November 7 in those areas where it was in effect. If you stay awake until then, you’ll see rain and snow showers in the Northeast; snow showers from Oklahoma into the High Plains; and rainy periods in the southeastern, Intermountain, and Pacific states, which will also be around on Veterans Day.
Of course, November 11 is Veterans Day in the United States and Remembrance Day in Canada. Most of the United States will have dry weather with rather mild temperatures on this holiday. While the Canadian Prairies will have sunny, mild weather, most of Canada will have rain or snow showers.
On November 20, National Child Day in Canada, you can expect snowy periods from Quebec to the Prairies and in the Yukon and Northwest Territories, with dry weather elsewhere.
November 25 is Thanksgiving in the United States and the start of a 4-day weekend that includes Black Friday. Expect flurries and cold temperatures from the Northeast westward to the Intermountain region; rainy periods from Florida into the Deep South and Texas; rain and snow in Alaska; showers in Hawaii; and mainly dry weather elsewhere.
Looking ahead to winter, important factors will include a weak La Niña, a continued warm phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a neutral to positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the early stages of its warm cycle. Oscillations are linked ocean-atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years.
This should lead to a colder-than-normal winter across most of the United States with milder-than-normal temperatures across most of Canada. Our annual Winter Forecast is out now—read it here!