May Weather Forecast 2023: Warmer Than Average?

May Forecast 2023

After what will have been a somewhat chilly April, the month of May could see the thermometer really rising across much of the United States. Temperatures are expected to be above average across many parts of the country, with the exception of the Intermountain West. Across Canada, while the Northwest Territories are expected to be cooler than normal, the rest of the country will see near- or above-normal temperatures.

With regard to precipitation, May will likely turn out to be drier than average across New England, while the mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions will be on the wet side. Most of the area from the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf Coast will see near-normal rainfall, as opposed to much of the Upper Midwest and Plains, where above-normal precipitation will be the norm. Many parts of the West will be on the dry side after withstanding a very wet (and snowy, in the mountains) winter. Alaska and Hawaii will see near- to above-normal precipitation. In just about everywhere except Atlantic Canada, where there will be a little less rain than usual, Canadians can expect above-normal precipitation throughout the month of May, which means the arrival of quite a few showers to help to get the green things growing. 

→ See the 2-month forecast for your region.

May 2023 Holiday Weather

• The Kentucky Derby will be run on the first Saturday in May—the 76h—at Churchill Downs in Louisville, where the potential for some “Run for the Roses” rain will increase the chances of a sloppy track by post time.

• On Mother’s Day, May 14, moms from the Ohio Valley down through the Southeast may get to enjoy some time outside, as we’re expecting some sunshine and a warm afternoon. Raindrops could dampen the day across New England and the Mid-Atlantic, while showers and even a few thunderstorms will move across portions of the Plains and Midwest. There will also be some showers in the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, while mothers in the Southwest will get to enjoy some sun. In Canada, showers will be widespread across the eastern half of the country, while more sunshine is expected farther west.

• Looking at May 27–29, the Memorial Day long weekend, we see that the best places in the United States to spend some time outside will be around the Great Lakes and on the West Coast. Some pockets of showers and thunderstorms will pop up elsewhere. Much of the country will be on the warm side, with the Pacific Northwest perhaps being especially so. Cool spots will be found from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Alaska will be on the chilly side as well, with some rain about.

Hurricane Season Approaches

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, and we’re coming off two very active years thanks in part to La Niña conditions in the Pacific.

A look ahead into later this year and the upcoming 2023 hurricane season reminds us that we’ve been in a mostly active stretch over the past few years in the Atlantic basin, which has largely coincided with the La Niña that developed during 2020. 

Following three hurricane seasons influenced by La Niña’s cooler waters, we do expect ocean temperatures in that part of the Pacific to start to warm as the year goes on. There’s a high likelihood that we’ll be in a neutral phase of ENSO (the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is a measure of how warm or cool the water is in the part of the Pacific off Central and northern South America that we monitor for El Niño and La Niña) or potentially even start to shift more toward El Niño (warmer waters) at some point during the hurricane season. El Niño years typically are not as active as La Niña ones, so we expect slightly below-average to nearly average tropical activity. The average number of named storms in the Atlantic is 14, which happens to be the number that we saw in 2022.

We’re forecasting the potential for hurricane strikes across Texas in late July and late August, with the threat of a tropical storm in the Deep South later in August. 

It’s important to keep in mind that the number of storms in any given year does not directly coincide with how many storms make landfall. Our go-to example for this is the 1992 hurricane season, which had only seven named storms in the Atlantic. The first storm, Andrew, didn’t form until mid-August—but ended up causing more than $26 billion in damage. 

–Bob Smerbeck and Brian Thompson, Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologists

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