What weather can we expect for May 2022? Will those fabled May flowers appear? Almanac meteorologist Michael Steinberg provides the extended forecast for May below.
May Forecast: Mild for Most, but Cooler on the West Coast
In the month of May overall, temperatures will be above normal across much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. Most of these areas will see a drier-than-normal May, although portions of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast may buck this trend a bit. Across much of the West, the wet season will try to hold on longer as it turns out cooler than average from the Rockies to the West Coast, with near- or above-normal precipitation. Elsewhere, it looks like a warm May for Alaska and a wet one in Hawaii.
Across Canada, it looks wet from the Prairies off to the north and west, while the weather will be somewhat drier and warmer than normal across Ontario and Quebec. Expect a wet May in the Maritimes, with near-normal temperatures.
On May 5—Cinco de Mayo—watch for some showers across the Northeast, while the weather will be sunny and warm from the mid-Atlantic to the Southeast. Rain will fall across portions of Florida. Sunshine is expected from the Ohio Valley through the Midwest. Some thunderstorms will fire up across portions of the Plains. The western U.S. will generally be cool, with some showers. Spotty showers and even a few thunderstorms will move across much of Canada.
The Kentucky Derby will be run on the first Saturday in May—the 7th—at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and it’s looking like the weather will again be rosy for the 148th “Run for the Roses.” A cool day is on the way despite some sunshine, and the track should be “fast” for the third year in a row.
On Mother’s Day, May 8, Mom and her flowers will be basking in sunshine across much of the East due to early-season warmth, although cool, showery weather may persist in New England. The warm air will help to spark thunderstorms from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest. Rain pockets will linger across the Rockies and Northwest, while mothers across the Southwest will enjoy a sunny, comfortable day. Heavy rain will wet Mom’s hair in eastern Hawaii. Showers may pop up across central and eastern Canada, as well as some flurries out toward the Northwest Territories.
For Victoria Day in Canada on May 23, the weather looks cool and showery across the Maritimes, while there will be some breaks of sun along with the risk of spotty showers from Quebec through Ontario. Springtime thunderstorms will accompany mild weather in the Prairies, while showers impact northern and western parts of Canada.
Although we don’t expect this Memorial Day weekend (May 28–30) to be as brisk as it was last year for much of the central and eastern U.S., it will be cool with some showers from New England through the Appalachians. Thunderstorms will help to usher in the unofficial start of summer across the East, especially across Florida. Generally drier weather is expected farther west across the Deep South and into portions of the Plains. Early-season heat will be raging across the interior Southwest, with a marine layer keeping it cooler near the coast. Even the Pacific Northwest will be on the warm side, with widespread sunshine. Some rounds of rain will move across Alaska and Hawaii.
Hurricane Season Approaches
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, and we’re coming off two very active years thanks in part to La Niña conditions in the Pacific.
This 2022 season will feature near- or slightly above-average activity, with La Niña weakening. If this season’s count does indeed end up above average, it would be the seventh straight above-average season in terms of the number of named storms.
The best chance for a major hurricane strike will be in Georgia or the Carolinas in mid-September, with tropical storm threats in Texas from mid- to late June, the Southeast from mid- to late August, and the Deep South from mid- to late July and in late October.