
The Sun three years ago when storms were still visible on its surface. This image was taken by my friend Matt Francis, the director of the Prescott Observatory.
Could a Deep Solar Minimum Bring About a New Ice Age?
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The trend is your friend till the end. Your now at the end. Welcome to the Ice Age. Hope its just the little one and the the 11000 year plunge... Were off to a rough start. Looks like we just lost the citrus crop in Texas due to global cooling. Turns out once again the experts were fu#%king clueless at best, deceptive at worse. Turns out sunspot cycles or lack of them can influence temperatures of earth. Regardless of how much carbon is in the atmosphere. Now masses believe the climate is dangerously warming while in the real world parts are getting extremely cold. The entire fossil fuel complex has been kicked to the curb with infastructure not adapted to extreme cold in Texas on top of the windmills freezing fiasco. Some things I predict are about to change. Otherwise people will continue to freeze to death.
As a native American I see the planet cooling off. My vison in a near death experience.
We need to prepare for poor growing years. Use major hydroponic covered growing farms.
Use our supply f natural gas for heating the sites
The harmonic sinusoidal models by NOAA NASA are vague with poor accuracy of past cycles like other climate models.
Cycle 25 will be the weakest in recorded history.
Based on our ARIMA sunspot cycle model I predict this 21st Century Grand Solar Minimum to be comparable to the 17th Century Maunder minimum cycle of 1645 - 1715 and lot worse than the 18th Century Dalton Minimum cycle of 1790 - 1830, the 19th Century Glassberg Minimum cycle of 1880 - 1914, and the 20th century Modern Minimum cycle of 1914 - 2007.
The longer duration 21st Century Grand Solar Minimum Sunspot Cyclic ARIMA Model (11,1,0) (11,1,12) predicts the Annual Total Sunspots, as follows:
2018: 104 (measured 85)
2019: 30 (measured 42)
2020: 68
2030: 74
2040: 20
2050: 0
Consequences: Less active Sun, more Cosmic Rdiation penetration to troposphere, more cloud seeding, less incident Sola radiation, temperature drop, more cooling worldwide, less rainfall, crop failures and droughts, diseases, electricity grid disasters due to UN led campaign of weather dependent wind and solar energy.
Poor people and developing countries will suffer the most.
While irrepairable damage to natural climate change cycles is being caused by the UN led agenda of CO2 tax to stop ClimateChange and current efforts to contaminant skies for solar radiation management and climate intervention.
@drwaheeduddin
I firmly believe that scientists should ignore the "Social Sciences" and stick to facts. There is nothing more egregious to me than "corrected" research facts. Collect data in the most accurate method that you can and simply allow others to formulate conclusions, as they will. I am not an expert on climate or the sun, however I am an avid student of history. I believe that there is a convincing possibility that human beings are not nearly as influential on this planet as some would have us believe. If there is likely to be a great influencer on this planets climate and weather, I find it more highly probable that it is the sun. We are not driving this bus, we are merely along for the ride. I think it is the apex of hubris to believe that we can impact this world in any manner that approaches the magnitude of what the sun, the moon and even the internal cycles of the very planet we reside on have. All of that being said, I do not suggest that we spoil the environment. We owe it to ourselves and out fellow creatures on this planet to husband the environment as best we can while doing our best to survive with the most prosperity that we can do that one day we can improve our species survival chances. In the meantime, try to educate those reasonable folks around you to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. I believe that is the best we can do.
The solar cycles start with a fairly consistent low value for sunspots to a varied high. It makes more sense to consider them as starting at the low, as the impact of sunspots on temperature is similar at that time. Tracking the temperatures during the minimum years is one way of seeing the steady increase in global temperatures.
The maunder minimum lasted for several cycles so there is no evidence yet that we are in such a period. There has been some recent research suggesting that multiple cycles are embedded within the major cycles that could cause the next few cycles to be low. However we will have to wait a few decades to see how that plays out.
What we have seen is that sunspots do raise temperatures on earth compared to the background level of no sunspots. The difference between a maximum and minimum appears to be about 0.3 degrees however in this weak cycle that may be reduced to just half that. The absence of sunspots does not cause cooling and the effect of the minimums compared with the underlying warming caused by CO2 increases is insignificant.
Currently we are at a solar minimum with no El Nino influence, yet this years global temperature appears likely to be second hottest on record. Any suggestion that a maunder minimum would reduce temperatures over the next few decades is pure disinformation created by those who wish to sidetrack the discussion on rising temperatures.
Can someone please give us the facts? If we're in a solar minimum when did it start (year and mo. please) and when will it end (year and mo. please). Are we in a "Maunder" Minimum that a few links have hinted at on the internet. Again, nobody is speaking with one tongue (together on the facts) but we have one site saying one thing and another site saying something else. I haven't heard NASA's take on these questions either. So, we're either in one or we're not, it's we're entering a Maunder Minimum or we're not. Which one of these is it, please?
I noticed one thing not discussed by the commenters. The major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions that tend to be a part of the Grand Solar Minimum. If the New Madrid Fault ruptures with an 7.5 to 9.0 Magnitude quake it would split the US in two. Most of the natural gas and oil from Texas and Oklahoma goes through pipelines that cross the New Madrid Fault to get to the Eastern US. The last time it ruptured was in the winter of 1811-1812. It created a new series of lakes and made the Mississippi River run Northward for 3 days. There was also a major volcanic eruption of Tambora. 100 times as powerful as Mt. Saint Helens. This actually lowered global temperatures by as much as 2-3 degrees F. For more details about dangers where you live read John L. Casey's book "Upheaval" published in December 2016.
There is more to it than the suns lower output. I have read articles where the large planets are situated behind earth thus pulling us further away from the sun in a larger orbital path. The large planets location in the future can be calculated.
You need to stop tracking the sunspots and start looking at the agricultural picture. There has been reports substantiated with government figures detailing massive losses of crops due to drastic weather changes. Wheat futures are rising and crop productions have dropped. Spain was hit with an extremely violent hail storm that destroyed most of the coasts' vegetable crops. Farmers in our own heartland have had to delay planting due to prolonged cold. Italy just announced that for the first time, they may have to import olive oil as they have had record cold temperatures for the last two years.
I am not a scientist nor alarmist. I now look forward to you twisting this to relate it to carbon. Funny how when Mr. Gore's predictions of massive warming didn't come through, that lefties like you suddenly called it climate change. Any deviation is a climate change so that filled the void of record warmth. Did you not see the French people's reaction to the oppressive carbon taxes? They rioted as they needed to. I will continue with my belief that the carbon panic is a means for a certain few to extract money from the remaining many.
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