Our 2019 Fall Forecast is updated to cover both the first half of autumn as well as the second half, compliments of the just-released Old Farmer’s Almanac. We predict it will cool down for much of North America but not for everyone. Take a peek at the fall forecast.
2019 Fall Weather Forecast Summary
Autumn, with its cool, crisp nights, warm wool sweaters, and endless amount of pumpkin-flavored foods, officially begins with the autumnal equinox on Monday, September 23. (Read more about the autumnal equinox!)
‘Tis all a myth that Autumn grieves,
For watch the rain among the leaves;
With silver fingers dimly seen
It makes each leaf a tambourine.
–Samuel Minturn Peck, American writer (1854-1938)
Now, on to the weather:
Early Autumn (September to October)
Early autumn temperatures in the U.S. will be slightly cooler than normal in the Northeast, Deep South, Texas-Oklahoma, New Mexico, parts of southern California, northern Alaska, and western Hawaii. Warmer-than-normal weather is expected in much of the west (Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest), as well as in the Atlantic Corridor and Florida. Elsewhere in America, we expect temperatures to be at near-normal levels through these early autumn months.
In terms of precipitation, we’re forecasting above-normal amounts of rainfall in the Upper Midwest, Texas-Oklahoma, Desert Southwest, Pacific Southwest, and Hawaii. The opposite is in store for the Northeast, Atlantic Corridor, Appalachians, Southeast, Florida, Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley, Deep South, and Pacific Northwest, where drier weather should be expected. Elsewhere, near or slightly above-normal rainfall amounts are in the forecast.
Late Autumn (November to mid-December)
In November, temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal in much of the country, including along the East Coast, across the South, and up into the Lower Lakes, Heartland, and southern parts of High Plains and Intermountain regions. Exceptions to this are the Upper Midwest, northern parts of the High Plains and Intermountain regions, Desert Southwest, Pacific Northwest, Pacific Southwest, and Hawaii, where slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures are predicted for November. In early December, we’re expecting temperatures to be at slightly above-normal levels throughout most of the country, except for in the Desert Southwest and Pacific Northwest.
Precipitation in November will be slightly below normal in the Atlantic Corridor, Appalachians, Upper Midwest, Heartland, High Plains, Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, and Hawaii, but above normal in the Northeast, Southeast, and Alaska. Normal precipitation levels are predicted for elsewhere in the country in November. Early December precipitation will be slightly below normal for most of the U.S., except for in the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, and Hawaii, where more precipitation than normal is expected.
For monthly forecasts specific to your region, pick up a copy of the brand-new 2020 Old Farmer’s Almanac!
Will We See Snow Before Halloween?
This fall, our forecast calls for at least a hint of snow before Halloween in the Northeast, Appalachians, Lower Lakes, Upper Midwest, High Plains, Intermountain region, and Alaska. Flurries are also expected in Atlantic Canada, western Ontario, and the Prairies.
Meanwhile, in Canada …
What’s the story up north?
In early autumn, we expect temperatures in Canada to be above normal in the Prairies, British Columbia, and the Yukon, and below normal elsewhere in the country. During the latter half of autumn, we’ll start at normal, seasonable temperatures before reaching above-normal levels in early December.
In most of Canada, precipitation will be at above-normal levels in September and October. The Prairies, British Columbia, and western Quebec are the exceptions, with below-normal rainfall predicted for this time period. In November and December, slightly above normal to above normal precipitation is expected across the country.
For Thanksgiving weekend (October 12-14), southern Quebec and Ontario should expect sunny, pleasant weather, while the rest of the country ought to plan for periods of rain—or, in Atlantic Canada, even a bit of snow.
Prepare for Winter’s Wallop!
Dare we even mention winter?