Will Halloween bring us a trick or a treat this year, weatherwise? Here’s our October 2022 weather forecast from Bob Smerbeck and Brian Thompson, Old Farmer’s Almanac meteorologists.
October 2022 Weather Prediction
October temperatures will be cooler than normal in Florida, the Southeast, and the Deep South but warmer than normal elsewhere in the United States. Precipitation will be above average from Maine to Georgia and westward through the Appalachians, with a tropical storm and heavy rain possible across the Deep South late in the month. It will be drier than normal in most other locations.
In Canada, October temperatures will be warmer than normal across much of the country. Precipitation will be above normal in southern Quebec, southern British Columbia, and the Northwest Territories and generally below normal in most other areas. A hurricane may impact Atlantic Canada around the middle of the month.
What about the rest of autumn? Read our Fall Weather Forecast to see what’s coming!
Notable Dates in October
October 3 marks Child Health Day across the U.S., so make sure that your children have their jackets and umbrellas readily at hand in most places east of the Mississippi, as it will be rainy and cool. The kids may even need hats, gloves, and boots in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, as snow is expected there. Sunshine and sunscreen for the youngsters will be the rule in Florida, from Arizona into southern California, and across central and eastern Hawaii.
On October 10—Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples’ Day in the U.S. and Thanksgiving Day in Canada—skies will be sunny and dry for observances across most of the two nations. Still, rain could dampen outdoor plans from New England and the mid-Atlantic states westward across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, as well as into the Pacific Northwest. Folks in Alaska will need to plan for snowy and cold conditions. Canada’s east and west coasts will be rainy, but otherwise the weather will be sunny and dry for traveling.
Alaska Day, October 18, commemorates the transfer of the land that would become our 49th state from Russia to the United States in 1867. Folks in The Last Frontier on this day will find the weather mild, with rain and snow showers.
October 28 is Nevada Day, which celebrates the entrance of the 36th state into the Union on October 31, 1864. Those heading out and about for entertainment will need to keep the jacket and the umbrella handy, as it will be cool with a few showers around.
And what about the most ghoulish day of the month?
Halloween Forecast: Ghouls & Galoshes
Halloween will feature spookily rainy conditions, with trick-or-treaters in need of raincoats from the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states across the Appalachians, through the Heartland and the Upper Midwest, from the Rockies to the West Coast, and across much of Hawaii.
Meanwhile, a tropical storm may play a big trick, with wind and heavy rain across the Deep South. The kids will have dry conditions for gathering treats from the High Plains through Texas, however.
Canadian trick-or-treaters will enjoy dry and mild conditions in Atlantic Canada and the western Prairies, while the weather will be mild with rain showers across much of the rest of the country.
The Upcoming Winter
Looking ahead, the La Niña that has been in place for the past 2 years could persist throughout the upcoming winter; such conditions rarely last for three consecutive winters, which has happened only twice since 1950. The Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) remains in a warm phase, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is currently in a negative, or cool phase. Oscillations are linked to ocean–atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years.
Sunspot activity has dramatically increased during the past 6 months and now is at its highest level since late 2014. The relationship between increased solar activity and the future phase of the stratospheric winds near the equator (known as the QBO) could lead to the polar vortex becoming displaced from the North Pole. This would open the door for some cold shots across the eastern U.S. and Canada this winter.
See the 2022–2023 Winter Weather Forecast from The Old Farmer’s Almanac.