February 2024 Forecast: Will the Groundhog Get It Right? | Almanac.com

February 2024 Forecast: Will the Groundhog Get It Right?

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Weather Predictions for the Month of February

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Will Phil predict six more weeks of wintry weather? Does our own forecast agree? See weather predictions for February’s numerous notable dates, including the Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day! (We even look at the weather during Spring Training for our baseball fans!)

February 2024 Weather Predictions: Phil Says “Spring is Coming!”

On Groundhog Day, February 2, cloudy skies, snow showers, and flurries in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, and Wiarton, Ontario, will keep Phil and Willie, respectively, from seeing their shadows. Legend says that this will mean an early end to winter in these locations. According to NOAA, the weatherman woodchuck has been right about 40% of the time. How does this prediction align with our forecast for February and the rest of winter? 

Elsewhere, groundhogs will see their shadows across southern New England, from Georgia and Florida westward into Texas and Oklahoma, across the central Rockies, and over much of the southwestern U.S. In the rest of the U.S., as well as southern Canada, no shadows will be seen.

According to our long-range forecasts, February temperatures will be warmer than normal in the deep Deep South, southern Plains, and Pacific Northwest and colder than normal elsewhere across the U.S. Precipitation will be near to above normal from the East Coast all the way through the Rockies to the California coast, as well as in Hawaii, and below normal in southern Florida, Texas–Oklahoma, the southern Pacific Southwest, and southern Alaska. 

In Canada, temperatures will be near to below normal across much of the country, with the exception of southern British Columbia, where warmer temps will prevail. Precipitation will be near to below normal from Atlantic Canada through southern Quebec and across the Northwest Territories and above normal elsewhere.

Sun on Super Bowl Sunday

February 11, Super Bowl Sunday, will see sunny skies and mild conditions for fans tailgating at the big game inside domed Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Meanwhile, a snowstorm could alter Super Bowl travel plans from southern New England westward through the Appalachians and southward across Tennessee and Georgia.

→ The Super Bowl gridiron has been graced by wild weather over the years. Check out some of the most interesting Super Bowl Weather Records!

Cuddle Up for Valentine’s Day!

Making plans for eating indoors at a nice restaurant or going to a movie would be a good idea to avoid the rainy conditions that will prevail on Valentine’s Day, February 14, from much of the East Coast westward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, along the West Coast, and across Hawaii. 

A mix of rain and snow will arrive from Tennessee through the Heartland and into the Upper Midwest, while a snowstorm may put a damper on date night from the northern Plains and northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Across Canada, there will be a mix of rain and snow from Nova Scotia through southern Quebec and into southern Ontario, as well as in southern British Columbia; cold with flurries will be the norm elsewhere.

Presidential Prognostications 

On Presidents’ Day, February 19, skies will be rainy in Quincy, Massachusetts; Clinton, Pennsylvania; Coolidge, Arizona; and across much of the state of Washington—while a snowstorm will be underway in Cleveland, Ohio. Expect sunny conditions in Washington, Georgia; Lincoln, Nebraska; Roosevelt, Minnesota; and Grant, Oklahoma. 

February 19 is also Family Day in Canada, where it will be stormy with rain or snow across Atlantic Canada and southern Quebec and from the Canadian Prairies into southern British Columbia. In between, the Sun will be shining over southern Ontario. 

Spring Training Kick-Off

February 22 will mark the first spring training baseball game when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres play in Arizona, where fans can expect cool conditions with a few showers. When all 30 MLB teams play the first full slate of games on February 24, sunny and mild weather can be expected for Florida’s Grapefruit League action, while sunny and cool conditions will favor Cactus League play in Arizona.

What About the Rest of Winter?

Important factors for the rest of the winter will include El Niño, a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), a positive AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and a neutral to negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). Oscillations are linked to ocean–atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years. Another consideration is that we are heading toward a solar maximum, with an increase in sunspot activity that could impact the polar vortex toward the end of winter and into early spring. These teleconnections suggest a stormy end to winter, especially across the southern U.S.

For more about the weather, pick up your copy of The 2024 Old Farmer’s Almanac!

About The Author

Bob Smerbeck and Brian Thompson

Bob Smerbeck and Brian Thompson, our meteorologists, bring more than 50 years of experience to our famous weather forecasts. Read More from Bob Smerbeck and Brian Thompson